Rugby World Cup 2023 – a look at the favourites

The 2023 Rugby World Cup is now just around the corner, with squads mostly finalised, injuries mounting and some world-class players suspended, it’s (almost) anyone’s game. There are certainly a few favourites who look best placed to win the William Webb Ellis Cup, however, so let’s focus on them.

Ireland are once again entering a Rugby World Cup as the number one ranked team in the world but this time it doesn’t feel like they have peaked too early. With an abundance of quality all over the pitch, Ireland are well placed to finally get over their quarter-final hoodoo.

For Ireland, their strengths lie in their speed of play, with elite ball players in the forwards and ball runners in the backs, the key to their game is speed, speed, speed. When they are firing, it seems impossible to slow them down, barely committing more than two players to a ruck but still running phase after phase on their way to a score.

There aren’t many weaknesses in the Irish squad but flyhalf Johnny Sexton’s lack of recent rugby could mean they start slowly as he warms back up. If they can’t get their phase play working, they could end up stuck. This is most likely to happen against big, physical sides like South Africa, who they happen to be sharing a group with…

With depth that has become the envy of World Rugby and a squad dripping with talent, as well as home-field advantage, France look like one of the teams to beat. A monstrous forward pack and a back line that can score from anywhere is a dangerous combination and one that Fabian Galthier’s men will hope is enough to see them finally take home the biggest trophy in rugby.

France possess so many incredible ball carriers, from Damien Penaud and Gabin Villière on the wings to Jonathan Danty in the centres and Gregory Alldritt at number eight. They also play with an ‘organised chaos’ approach, mostly sensibly controlling possession and territory, but very willing to run it from their own 22 if there’s space.

For risk of stereotyping, French rugby has confounded expectations for almost its entire existence. When they look strong, they find a bizarre way to lose, when they look at their worst, they lose the World Cup Final by a point. So there is a risk of capitulation with the pressure of the home crowds on their shoulders but this group does seem mostly to have risen above the loveable ‘French-rugby-ness’ of it all.

The Springboks are only a few days removed from what might be regarded as the best World Cup warm-up game ever as they handed bitter rivals New Zealand their largest-ever defeat in front of 80,000 rabid fans at Twickenham. The Boks are growing in confidence and look set to right amongst the best in the tournament.

Having eschewed the established Handre Pollard from fly-half, the Boks have gone for the relatively inexperienced Manie Libbok at 10, with Damien Willemse as a second playmaker from 15. This axis was too much for the All Blacks to deal with, so most other teams won’t have a chance. The forward pack is as good as you’d expect from South Africa and André Esterhuizen is a dream pivot at inside-centre.

Again, there aren’t many, this is looking like a truly dominant squad. Ireland showed in the Autumnt that they can be beaten, much like how South Africa’s style is a perfect foil for Ireland, the opposite can be true too. Their group match is shaping up to be one of the games of the tournament.

The All Blacks were humbled at Twickenham as they could never get anything going and ended up soundly beaten by a rampant Boks side. Going back to the 15th of July, you could comfortably flip the team names and the same statement would still make sense. Never count out New Zealand rugby.

Ardie Savea at number eight is one of the great ball runners in rugby at the moment, a player who can strike fear into opponents' hearts. Beyond that, the backline, when they get front foot ball, is as good as any on the planet. With the Barretts at 12 and 15, Mark Telea and Will Jordan on the wings and Richie Mo’unga conducting it all from out-half, there is no stopping them at times.

The forward pack is not what it once was, whilst still an incredibly talented group, it’s not the all-conquering force of 2011 and 2015. The flankers Sam Cane and Luke Jacobson were soundly beaten by their counterparts against the Boks and without front foot ball, their backs are suddenly not as threatening.

Scotland should consider themselves very unlucky to be in a group with Ireland and South Africa. This is a seriously good team that, in other editions of the tournament, would be well-placed to challenge. This time round they are in the ‘group of death’ and could play very good rugby and still not make the quarter-finals. It wouldn’t be too much of a shock to see them sneak past one of the two big boys though.

This might look a ridiculous addition given the form of Steve Borthwick’s side but given their group and side of the draw, it’s not at all crazy to suggest they make the semi-finals with a bit of momentum behind them. Is this likely? No. Is this going to happen anyway? Almost certainly no. But it could…

By some bookies’ odds, Australia are the fifth favourites to win the whole tournament and a lot of that, much like England, is down to their draw. There’s every possibility they win all their group games and face England or Argentina in the quarter-finals where a win is eminently possible. From there they have the talent (and ludicrous size) to beat anyone if everything is firing.

Los Pumas love a World Cup. They always seem to peak at the right time and have finished third, twice, in previous tournaments. There is no team in rugby that feeds off the emotion of the occasion more than Argentina and they have the perfect coach in Michael Cheika to harness that. Again, the side of the draw gives them a real opportunity to make a deep run.

The draw has been mentioned a lot throughout and is worth clarifying, for various reasons, but mainly ticket sales, the groups were drawn years ago when the World Rugby landscape looked entirely different. As it stands, the top five teams in the world are on the same side of the draw meaning only two can reach a semi-final.

Despite this being perhaps the most open World Cup in years, it is tough to look too far past the hosts as possible champions. Many times the bridesmaids, maybe this time it’ll finally be the French taking home the trophy.