Can the Oklahoma City Thunder actually win the 2024 NBA title?

Very few NBA fans would have predicted that the Oklahoma City Thunder would snatch the number one seed in the Western Conference this season, but their emergence as a contender has been an interesting subplot during the NBA season. As their playoff run continues, we’ll take a closer look at whether the upstarts from Oklahoma City can actually win the championship. All statistics are sourced from Basketball Reference.

The common rhetoric around playoff positioning in the Western Conference centered around avoiding the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports wondered aloud whether teams at the bottom of the standings should lose to avoid the defending champions. Many suggested that the Thunder would be an easier first round matchup.

However, Oklahoma City didn’t much care about who their opponent would be in round one. It ended up being the New Orleans Pelicans, but the Thunder were more focused on having home court advantage throughout the postseason.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander knew how pumped the crowd gets during the regular season, and was looking forward to hearing their enthusiasm in the postseason. He told Sports Illustrated before the playoffs, “Now I’m a little more excited to find that out…the energy in that arena feels amazing in Game 13 of the season, so I can only imagine when it’s a playoff game.”

While homecourt advantage has been somewhat nullified by the availability of tickets on secondary markets, Oklahoma City fans are known as one of the most passionate groups in the NBA. Sports Illustrated pointed out their moniker, Loud City, in a playoff preview piece. This raucous atmosphere could cause opposing role players to feel uncomfortable in big spots.

A veteran team might not be too stressed out by the environment Oklahoma City features, but an inexperienced squad might be affected. For example, if the Thunder face the Minnesota Timberwolves later in the postseason, some of the latter’s young swingmen may not play as well on the road.

He was named a finalist for league MVP, so the NBA community understands just how sensational Gilgeous-Alexander has been for the Thunder this season. Oklahoma City teammate Chet Holmgren jumped into a postgame interview of Gilgeous-Alexander and called for the guard to be the MVP. Athlon Sports said that NBA legend Shaquille O’Neal believes he should win the award.

There are many skills Gilgeous-Alexander possesses that makes him uniquely qualified to lead a team to the NBA title. He doesn’t have many up and down performances. He had 51 30-point games this season, according to StatMuse, which allows the Thunder to rely on his scoring output on a nightly basis. There doesn’t seem to be a matchup that fazes him.

What might have been lost in Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP caliber campaign is that he also led the NBA in steals this season, with two swipes per contest. This defensive ability puts pressure on opposing guards to be more careful when they bring the ball up against him.

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Many will point to the Thunder’s youth at key rotational spots as a reason why they won’t win the NBA title this year. According to the Oklahoman, the average age of their roster is just over 24 years old, second youngest in the NBA, and youngest of any postseason team.

According to Github pages, being this young hasn’t really translated to NBA title success in the modern era. By weighted average, the youngest team to win a title was the 1976-1977 Portland Trail Blazers, with an average age of 24.1. The only recent team to win a championship with a significant amount of youth is the 2014-2015 Golden State Warriors, with a 26.3 average age.

Gilgeous-Alexander has heard the whispers about inexperience but isn’t buying it as a reason to worry. He told The Oklahoman, “I’ve heard that all year. It’s not gonna change. We’re still young. We’ll probably be young for another four or five years. We don’t worry about it. We focus on what goes on in these four walls.”

Chet Holmgren brings an intriguing physical profile to the team. New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas has sometimes outmuscled the thin center in the first round of the playoffs, as ESPN noted. However, Holmgren’s versatility and size on the perimeter have counteracted that disadvantage somewhat.

This dynamic will probably continue for Holmgren and the Thunder for as long as they’re in the playoffs. Even though Holmgren may not have the strength to keep opposing big men out of the paint, he has the length to bother their shot. That’s in addition to the range he brings as an offensive player on the other end of the floor.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Thunder attack the Nuggets, should they meet up in the Western Conference Finals. Nikola Jokic may also try to play physically with Holmgren. However, their entire roster seems perfectly put together to sustain excellence, as The Ringer highlighted. Oklahoma City would figure to have their hands full in that series.

Do you think the Oklahoma City Thunder have what it takes to win the 2024 NBA championship? Let us know what you think by leaving a comment!

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