Does Trump’s conviction matter? A new poll made an interesting discovery

Donald Trump is now a convicted criminal, but the most recent polling shows this doesn’t matter to his followers, and it may not matter to voters nationally if the findings of a New York Times and Siena College poll are to be believed.

Published on June 26th, the new polling revealed that Trump has a 4-point lead over the President with 48% support while Biden only had 44% support. Similar polling from April had the two candidates neck-in-neck according to Politico. 

The most interesting fact uncovered by the New York Times and Siena College poll was that Trump’s conviction didn’t seem to have a big effect on how people planned to vote in November. 68% of individuals said Trump’s verdict made no difference. 

Nearly one in five respondents (19%) Trump’s conviction made them less likely to vote for the former president in November whereas 11% reported that the verdict in Trump’s business records falsification case made them more likely to vote for him. 

The New York Times and Siena College poll comes weeks after initial polling following the former president’s convection showed that the decision would have a big impact on how people planned to vote following his verdict. 

Polling following Trump's conviction revealed that the conviction would be an important factor in who some Americans planned to choose in the upcoming presidential election. As many as one in five said they were less likely to cast their ballot for Trump in one poll. 

Published on June 17th, the polling was conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Politico, and it found that the former president could be in a lot of trouble come November after he was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records. 

Nearly one-fifth (22%) of the 1,027 Americans polled reported that they were less likely to support Trump in the upcoming election because of his guilty verdict and they noted that the conviction was important. 6% said they were more likely to support Trump. 

While nearly one-fifth of respondents said the verdict would affect their decision, a much larger plurality of 40% said that the verdict in New York wouldn’t have an impact on their vote in November and was not important to their decision-making process. 

Still, the findings from Ipsos and Politico were quite worrying for Trump since the race appeared to still be neck-in-neck between the former president and Joe Biden at that time

The findings from Politico and Ipsos were not the first concerning polling results that emerged after the former president was convicted. Polling taken in the days after his conviction showed that Trump was likely in a lot of trouble with some voters.  

Post-conviction polling from Reuters and Ipsos immediately after the former president's conviction showed Trump was a little less desirable as a candidate to Republicans following his conviction. 

Ten percent of Republican registered voters said that they were less likely to vote for the former president now that he was a convicted felon based on the two-day poll that Ipsos conducted in the hours after the verdict was announced.

However, 56% of Republicans polled did report that the case would not have an impact on how they voted in November while 36% said they were more likely to support Trump in the wake of his conviction. 

“The potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction,” Reuters’ Jason Lange explained at the time. 

More important than the small percentage of Republican voters who were put off by the former president’s conviction are the large numbers of independents who indicated that Trump’s conviction would affect how they planned to vote in 2024. 

One-quarter of independents (25%) were less likely to support the former president in November while 18% said Trump’s guilty verdict made them more likely to support him. 56% of independents said the verdict would have no impact on their decision. 

Other polling at the time showed that Trump’s conviction would likely also impact independent voters far more than Reuters and Ipsos reported. For example, polling from the Morning Consult published on June 1st discovered something very interesting.   

Nearly half of independents polled (49%) indicated that Trump should end his bid to get reelected to the presidency because of his conviction. This view was also supported by 15% of Republicans polled by The Morning Consult. 

An ABC News and Ipsos poll released on June 2nd also revealed a similar finding with that poll showing 49% of voters surveyed thought the former president should end his campaign while 50% thought his guilty verdict on all 34 charges was correct. 

Over half of those surveyed by The Morning Consult (54%) said that they supported the decision to convict the former president on the 34 charges that he faced “A similar share believes Trump committed a crime,” The Morning Consult added. 

Axios broke down some of the more interesting findings of the Morning Consult’s polling not related to the former president’s re-election bid and pointed out the market research firm found the race was still essentially running neck and neck nationally, a fact that has since changed based on the most recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College. 

Joe Biden captured 45% of the vote while Trump had 44%. One of the most interesting aspects of The Morning Consult’s polling was that most voters did not want Trump to be punished with prison time. 

“While they may agree with the guilty verdict, the poll found that more voters think Trump should get probation (49%) rather than go to prison (44%),” Axios explained, adding that 68% of voters thought Trump should be fined.  

Trump’s post-conviction polling also revealed the deep distrust some voters have of the justice system. Three in four Republicans reported to The Morning Consult that they felt less confident in the system. 

Moreover, 77% of Republican voters and 43% of independents indicated that they thought Trump’s conviction in his hush money case was driven by political motives and meant to damage the former president’s political career according to Axios. 

The polling from ABC News and Ipsos also found at the time that a similar number of voters (47%) said they believed Trump’s conviction was politically motivated, which is a problem that may cause issues with his base as the November election draws near.  

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