These are the worrying facts about China's plans to expand its nuclear arsenal

In October 2023, the U.S. Defense Department published its yearly report to Congress on military and security developments in China, revealing the Chinese were making an aggressive push to expand their nuclear arsenal.

The Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2023 revealed several concerning truths about the only real major adversary that can counter the United States. Let's take a look at concerns the U.S. Defense Department reported.

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By 颐园居 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

The U.S. Department of Defense believed China had roughly 500 nuclear warheads in its arsenal as of May 2023 according to the defense report. 

China’s nuclear inventory at the time the report was released included 100 more warheads than it did in the previous year, a statistic that showed the country’s ability to rapidly produce advanced nuclear weapons on par with other leading states. 

The Department of Defense noted in its report Beijing would continue to “rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces,” and added that the country’s new modernization program dwarfed previous efforts. 

“They are exceeding some of our previous projections and so if you take that out beyond 2030 I think it’s safe to say that that’s a trend that we think would continue,” one official said according to Defense News.

China was developing its nuclear arsenal at a scale and complexity that had not been seen in the country before, which included expanding the amount of land, sea, and air-based delivery platforms that Beijing could draw on in the future. 

Moreover, investment and construction also expanded, and the report remarked that China would “probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2023.” However, that statistic wasn't the most concerning finding of the report. 

Many of the new nuclear weapons being added to China’s arsenal would be deployed at a level of readiness that could allow Beijing to continue the growth of its nuclear arsenal and put China on track to complete its modernization. 

The Department of Defense estimated that China would reach President Xi Jinping’s goal of becoming a world-class military power by 2049, meaning Beijing would be able to go toe-to-toe with the United States in a possible war.

“What they’re doing now, if you compare it to what they were doing about a decade ago, it really far exceeds that in terms of scale and complexity,” an unnamed Department of Defense official told Politico about China’s efforts at the time.

“They’re expanding and investing in their land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this quite major expansion of their nuclear forces,” the official added. 

A key to China’s future success is the country's “new fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities” the report commented, which it noted would be used to “produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons program” despite China stating the tech was to be used for peaceful purposes. 

The construction of three new solid-propellent fuel silo fields was completed in 2022, and those fields could house as many as 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos, which gave Beijing far greater nuclear readiness than before the nuclear soils were constructed. 

“This obviously raises a lot of concerns for us,” a senior defense official explained about the Chinese nuclear issue on October 18th, 1023. “What we’d really like to see is for them to be more transparent about their nuclear buildup."

CNN noted that the defense official added the United States wanted to see “greater interest” on the Chinese side in discussing “strategic stability and risk reduction issues.” However, it was unclear at the time if that would happen in the future. 

China has moved toward a far more aggressive international posture in recent years as part of the country’s mission to revamp the Chinese image on the world stage and turn the country into one of the world’s leading military powers. 

Military expansion in China isn’t limited to its nuclear arsenal according to the report from the Department of Defense. Beijing also expanded the country’s submarine and surface ships assets by 30 vessels. 

China’s defense budget was also increased by 7.1% which may have been used to help Beijing bridge its nuclear gaps with other world powers. 

As of July 2024, China was, and still is, far behind the U.S. and Russia in its nuclear capacity. The United States has 5,748 nuclear weapons, Russia 5,580, and China just 500 according to data published by the American Federation of Scientists that was published by Arms Control Association. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Voice of America, Public Domain

The Defense Department report also noted that China could likely have 1,500 operational nuclear warheads by 2035 if the country's expansion of its arsenal continues at its current pace of modernization and production.

“China is aggressively pursuing a rapid expansion and modernization of its nuclear forces,” the Head of Integrated Deterrence at the Pentagon John Plumb said while speaking at a Brookings Institute event in 2023. “The speed and scale has been nothing short of breathtaking.”