How much has Russia’s war in Ukraine cost Putin?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has cost the Kremlin a lot in manpower and equipment but how much money has the conflict bled from Moscow? War isn’t cheap and there are a few estimates of how much Russia has spent. 

One of the most recent estimates regarding the cost of the war for Russia came from an anonymous senior U.S. defense official who spoke with reporters in mid-February 2024, explaining to them the costs were in the billions. 

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Russia has likely spent $211 billion dollars on the war through equipping, deploying, and maintaining its soldiers for operations in Ukraine according to a report from Reuters. But that isn’t the only cost of the war for the Kremlin. 

Moscow isn’t just spending money directly on the war. It’s also losing out elsewhere and a prime example is in its military exports and arms sales. Russia has lost more than $10 billion in canceled or postponed arms contracts. 

The war has also cost Russia in terms of the country’s overall economic prosperity, and these numbers dwarf the cost of sustaining its army in the field. Moscow is expected to lose $1.3 trillion in economic growth up to 2026.  

Other estimates of Russian costs haven’t been as high as those proposed by the United States. For example, in December 2023, RAND Corporation estimated the Kremlin had suffered a much lower cost to prosecute its war. 

Direct military spending was estimated to have cost Russia $132 billion through 2024, a sum much lower than the $211 billion quoted by the unnamed American defense official. But this wasn’t the only cost estimate provided. 

RAND Corporation didn’t have an estimate for the total capital Russia lost in 2023 but it did provide what appears to be an accurate estimation of the capital destruction Russia suffered in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine. 

Gross Domestic Product losses amounted to somewhere between $81 billion and $104 billion, but the American think tank also pointed out that growth returned to Russia after the second quarter of 2023. 

Russia also experienced $320 billion dollars in financial capital destruction in 2022. This figure was reached by measuring “the market value of companies listed on the Moscow Stock” but RAND noted the market revived in 2023. 

“Russia can sustain these costs for at least several years. However, over the long term, even with a stalemated war,” the financial report explained, “Russia's economy and the standard of living of its people are likely to decline.”

Russian economic expert and correspondent at the Wilson Centers’ Kenennan Institute Boris Grozovski told Newsweek that after factoring Russia’s spending plan in 2022 and the indirect costs of war, the price tag may reach 15 trillion rubles (about $163.5 billion).

Indirect costs of the war included things like treating wounded soldiers and paying for the teachers needed in Russia’s occupied territories. However, other experts think the cost of the war proposed by Grozovski is likely too small. 

Sean Spoonts, editor-in-chief of Special Operations Forces Report told Newsweek that most experts aren’t factoring in additional costs that can drive up the price tag of the war for Russia far beyond what is being estimated. 

"In our mind,” Spoonts said, "if Russia spends $1 million on a missile to build it and then fires it, they have expended $2 million: $1 million to build it and another million to replace it… I think most estimates only take into account the initial cost."

"If you had a $50,000 car that burned up in a fire, you are out the $50,000 plus whatever you spend to replace it because you need a car,” Spoonts added, and that is the biggest issue with trying to calculate Russia’s costs. 

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There are too many moving parts that need to be factored in order to get the true cost of the war. What we do know, however, is that the invasion has cost billions, if not trillions, for Russia in both direct military spending, ancillary issues, and lost economic opportunity.