Pollster pessimistic about Trudeau and Liberal election chances

According to one pollster, regardless of Justin Trudeau's leadership, the Liberal Party is unlikely to win the next federal election. The pollster predicts that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party will form the next government.

President and founder of the Innovative Research Group Greg Lyle was quoted by The Hill Times as saying Trudeau has “basically tanked with everybody” and that it was over for the Prime Minister. “There’s no hope with Trudeau.”

The sentiment that things are over for the Liberals and Trudeau may seem like it is too good to be true for those who don’t support the Prime Minister, but polling over the last several months has revealed the problems the Liberals face. 

The Hill Times noted that polling from Innovative Research Group in late April showed the Conservatives were leading the Liberals with 41 percent of support compared to the meager 24 percent the Liberals were able to net from those surveyed. 

“It’s been like that for us since last November,” Lyle explained about the poll's findings, adding that undecided voters only make up about ten percent of voters, which would not be enough to stop a Conservative win even if they backed Trudeau and the Liberals.

Polling from Abacus Data at the end of April also showed that Trudeau and the Liberals would be facing some major problems if the next federal election were held at that time. The polling revealed something rather interesting. 

Abacus Data found the Conservatives had the largest lead Abacus Data had ever measured for them with the party at 21% of the vote and leading in every region of Canada, except for Quebec where the Liberals still held strong as the first party of preference.

“There has been no significant change in any of the party vote shares since our latest survey, but at 21 points, this Conservative lead represents the largest we have ever measured for the party,” Abacus Data noted in a report on its survey. 

If the next federal election had been held at the end of April, then Conservatives would have captured 44% of voters would have cast their ballot for them while 23% of voters would have chosen the Liberals and 17% the New Democratic Party. 

The Conservatives were well ahead of the other federal parties in the Prairie Provinces. They also took a 19-point lead in British Columbia and Ontario. That lead was extended to 21 points in Atlantic Canada. Quebec presented the only problem. 

The Bloc Quebecois was just slightly ahead of both the Liberals and the Conservatives in the province with 33% of the vote. The Liberals and Conservatives tied for second in Quebec with each capturing 28% of the vote. 

“The results from our latest survey clearly illustrate the challenging position the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau find themselves in following the federal budget,” explained Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. 

“Despite attempts to sway public opinion, there has been no discernible improvement in their poll numbers, with the party stuck in a deep hole not seen since before 2015,” Coletto added. 

As Coletto noted, more worrying for Liberals than the general voting trends revealed by Abacus Data is a discovery from the market research firm that Justin Trudeau seems to be as unpopular as ever with 58% of people having a negative impression of him. 

Trudeau had 24% of those polled say they had a positive impression of him, meaning the Prime Minister had a net score of -34. Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, has seen a growing rise in his popularity since September 2023. 

“In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre [have] seen a slight improvement in his image with 40% viewing him positively and 34% negative for a net score of +6,” Abacus Data explained in a report on its polling. 

“For the first time in our tracking, we asked Canadians who they would prefer to be Prime Minister. Pierre Poilievre leads Justin Trudeau by 20 points and leads in every region or province in the country, including in Quebec,” Abacus Data added. 

Poilievre has emerged as a popular figure with growing favorability at a time when the current prime Minister is stagnating and his favorability as the leader of the Liberals is waning, the market research firm added. 

“This shifting dynamic presents a formidable challenge for the Liberals, who are now grappling with the reality of a deeply entrenched negative perception,” David Coletto explained before also noting that reversing this trend will be difficult. 

“The stark contrast in the trajectory of the Liberals compared to the rising Conservatives underscores a significant realignment in Canadian politics, one marked by a major shift in how younger generations view their political choices at the moment,” Coletto added. 

Abacus Data wasn't alone in its findings. Updated polling data from 338Canada from May 12th found that the Conservatives were well-positioned to win the next election. If it were held on May 12th, the Conservatives would capture 220 seats in parliament. 

Only 172 seats in parliament are needed to form a majority government according to 338Canada, which projected that the Liberals would net 64 seats while the NDP would win 19, the Green Party 2, and the Bloc Quebecois 38.

More recent polling from Abacus Data conducted between  May 12th and 21st found that Conservative support slipped slightly to 41% while Liberal support increased from their previous April polling to 25% 

“Last month we had the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 21-points. Today, it’s 16. That’s not a huge swing but it’s movement, thanks in large part to a shift in vote intentions among younger Canadians. Despite this improvement, it’s still a very difficult environment for the Liberals,” Coletto wrote. 

"The desire for change is still very high. The Prime Minister’s personal numbers are still near there all-time low, and Mr. Poilievre, while a little less popular than a few weeks ago, has way less people feeling negatively towards him than the Prime Minister," Coletto added. 

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