Will supplying Ukraine with British jets and long-range missiles lead to nuclear war?

Supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with long-range air-to-surface missiles is now on the table for Rishi Sunak’s government according to a report from The Times. 

Prime Minister Sunak promised to provide Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with more military assistance after his historic visit to the United Kingdom and his heartfelt plea to Parliament for more help on February 8th.

"I appeal to you and the world, with simple and yet most important words,” Zelensky told the British Parliament, “combat aircraft for Ukraine, wings for freedom."

"We know freedom will win, we know Russia will lose," Zelensky added. "The United Kingdom is marching with us towards the most... important victory of our lifetime. It will be a victory over the very idea of the war."

Sunak got the message and quickly announced a new round of military aid with plans for more long-term support. The Prime Minister also offered to train Ukranian pilots on modern Western fighter jets, a move that surprised many.

“Since 2014, the UK has provided vital training to Ukrainian forces, allowing them to defend their country, protect their sovereignty and fight for their territory,” Sunak said on February 8th. 

"I am proud that today we will expand that training from soldiers to marines and fighter jet pilots, ensuring Ukraine has a military able to defend its interests well into the future,” the Prime Minister added. 

"It also underlines our commitment to not just provide military equipment for the short term, but a long-term pledge to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine for years to come,” Sunak concluded. 

During a joint press conference with Zelensky after his speech in Parliament, Sunak said that “nothing” was off the table in terms of military aid and that supplying Ukraine with fighter jets was “part of the conversation.”

Zelensky thanked Sunak for his assistance and then stressed how important receiving fighter jets and long missiles would be to the Ukrainian war effort. Without them, “there would be stagnation,” according to Zelensky. 

The Ukrainian President’s visit to the UK left Sunak in the all-too-familiar position of being the first Western leader to consider giving Uranian forces weapons that could be used for offensive purposes.

Britain was the first nation that agreed to supply Ukraine with Western main battle tanks back in January, offering its Challenger 2 tank to Ukrainian forces.

On February 3rd, the United States agreed to supply Ukraine with ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) that have an effective attack range of 150 miles according to BBC News. 

"This gives them a longer-range capability, long-range fires capability, that will enable them, again, to conduct operations in defense of their country and take back their sovereign territory, Russian-occupied areas," Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters. 

While GLSDBs will help make a major difference in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, they’re nowhere near as important missiles that can reach ranges of 350 miles like the American MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—a weapon the Biden administration announced it would not send on February 13th according to Politico. 

With the United States unwilling to supply Ukraine with actual long-range missiles, the door has been left open for Britain to take the lead—and as of February 10th—Sunak may be willing to supply them according to reports from Daily Mail. 

“Discussions are now said to be taking place over whether they should include Harpoon or Storm Shadow missiles” in military aid packages, wrote Greg Heffer and Mark Nicol. 

“It has also been claimed that Ukraine could use such weaponry to strike Russian-occupied Crimea, which would potentially be a major escalation in the conflict,” the Daily Mail journalists added. 

Britain’s Shadow Storm air-launched cruise missiles have an attack range of 350 miles according to their manufacturer MBDA Missile Sytems, a distance that would not only allow Ukraine to strike Crimea but also penetrate deep into Russian territory.

Zelensky has been insistent that any peace would require the return of Crimea according to Bloomberg News, so it is likely any long-range missile sent by the UK would eventually be used in an offensive capacity to assist in a future assault of the Crimean Peninsula—territory Russia has considered part of its Federation since its annexation in 2014. 

The likelihood that such an attack would significantly escalate the war and could possibly trigger a nuclear response from the Kremlin according to Russian sources.

"Any attempt to seize Crimea and return it to Ukraine will immediately escalate into a thermonuclear global conflict,” the chairman of Crimea's Civic Chamber Alexander Formanchuk said during a February 2nd interview with the Russia state-run news agency RIA Novosti. “Russia will not forgive this.”