Will NATO’s new deal with Ukraine draw American troops into the war?

On July 7th, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced a new assistance package for Ukraine that will see the embattled country receive years of support from the alliance in a pre-summit conference ahead of the military bloc's July 12th meeting.  

Heads of State and Government from across the military alliance are set to gather for a historic summit on the future path of transatlantic security and the issue at the top of the list for the military bloc’s members will be the issue of Ukraine’s future membership. 

The summit is set to take place in Vilnius, Lithuania, and ahead of the historic meeting, Stoltenberg held a pre-summit conference announcing the details behind a three-point program that he was sure the alliance’s leaders would agree on once at the summit. 

Stoltenberg declared Ukraine would be made stronger at the summit in Vilnius and that the military alliance would set out a vision for the country's future—a future that sounded a lot like NATO’s leadership was preparing to eventually bring Ukraine into the alliance.

First, Stoltenberg said a multi-year program of assistance would be agreed upon, which would not only assist the Ukrainians in their current fight against Russia but also ensure the country’s armed forces were fully interoperable with the military bloc’s armed forces. 

Second, political ties between the alliance and Ukraine would be upgraded through the establishment of a NATO-Ukraine Council, which Stoltenberg described as a “political platform where we can have crisis consultations and…make decisions together.

The NATO-Ukraine Council would be used to deepen political cooperation between the alliance’s leaders and Ukraine; each nation in the military bloc will have representation on the council in order to “consult together on issues that matter to our security.”

Third, Stoltenberg said it was expected that each member of the alliance was expected to reaffirm that Ukraine would become a NATO member and work to figure out how that goal could be achieved, begging the question: will this draw U.S. troops into the war?

Newsweek pointed out that Stoltenberg’s new program for Ukraine not only offers Kyiv the promise of future membership but also enhanced security guarantees. But it will not set out the conditions for which American, or any member troops, would fight in Ukraine. 

Stoltenberg noted in his pre-conference address the alliance was taking “major steps to strengthen our deterrence and defense,” announcing three new regional defense plans aimed at countering the military bloc’s two major threats: Russia and terrorism.  

One plan would focus on the Atlantic and European Arctic and undoubtedly seek to curb any potential threat Russia could pose to the arctic security of several alliance member states, a theater of potential conflict that’s become important due to climate change. 

The second plan would focus on the Baltic Region as well as Central Europe, a plan that could feature Finland, the alliance's newest member, in a big way while the third defense plan will focus on developing the military bloc’s security in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.

Stoltenberg said that in order to execute the plans, “NATO is putting 300,000 troops on higher readiness. Including substantial air and naval combat power,” a worrying phrase but would not draw U.S. troops or any other NATO member into the war in Ukraine. 

Political advisor and international relations expert James Jay Smart told Newsweek that had the deal announced by Stoltenberg included anything mentioning the provision of troops that it was likely Joe Biden wouldn’t have approved the new NATO program. 

"I do not foresee the U.S. backing any deals to send any NATO country's troops to Ukraine," Smart said, and the issue of Western troops fighting against Russia might be why the alliance is so split on when Ukraine should be offered membership. 

States like the United Kingdom, Poland, and the Baltic nations have been steadfast in their support that Ukraine should be given fast-tracked into the military bloc Newsweek reported while other members think the alliance should wait until the war is over. 

"As long as Putin is in power, there will not be security in Ukraine, or in the rest of Europe," Smart told Newsweek. “That is why at the Vilnius Summit, NATO leaders should start seriously discussing the downfall or removal of Vladimir Putin."

The only thing that could guarantee American troops in Ukraine at this point would be for the country to join NATO and for Moscow to do something that triggered the military bloc’s Article 5 defensive clause and draw in the full might of the transatlantic alliance.