Will Belarus join the war against Ukraine?

After a flurry of Belarusian military activity in December, some experts are worried that Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko may be preparing his country for an offensive against Ukraine. 

Images of new forest roads and military equipment heading for Ukraine’s northern border taken in late November showed signs of a major military buildup that many experts fear may be the spearhead of Russia’s next offensive. 

Belarus began ramping up its troop deployments to its border with Ukraine on December 7th under the guise of a counter-terrorism exercise according to a Reuters report. 

A snap inspection of Belarusian troops designed to test their combat readiness on December 13th raised fears that Lukashenko was preparing to enter the conflict in Ukraine. 

"The troops will need to go to the designated areas as soon as possible, implement their engineering equipment, organize security and defense, as well as conduct bridge crossings," officials from the Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement to the public. 

On December 19th, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarus to discuss closer military cooperation with Lukashenko in what many experts assumed was a meeting planned to finally get Belarus into the war. 

“We agreed to continue to take all necessary measures together to ensure the security of our two countries,” Putin later said in a post-meeting press conference. 

Putin went on to say that the two countries would also make training troops and increasing their combat readiness a priority all while continuing to hold “regular joint exercises and other operational and combat training activities.”

Over the last eleven months, the Kremlin has been pressuring Lukashenko to enter Russia’s war but so far the Belarusian dictator has held firm on staying out of the conflict. 

After his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko called Russia “his closest ally and strategic partner” but made no indication that he would fight with Russia in Ukraine.

Most experts agree that Lukashenko has been reluctant to enter the war so far because of how unpopular it is among his military’s rank and file, the very soldiers and officers who are currently keeping him in power in Minsk. 

“Lukashenko is doing his best not to send the military to Ukraine,” a former Belarusian lieutenant colonel named Artyom told journalists at Foreign Policy.

“He understands that the only people who can keep him in power are the military and security services,” the lieutenant colonel continued.

“If they go to Ukraine, they will either die or get wounded, and that could be a disaster for him,” Artyom added.

Lukashenko’s hold on power in Belarus has been tenuous at best since the mass protests against his rule in 2020. 

“Losing troops will build discontent in the country,” said Hanna Liubakova—a Belarusian journalist and member of the American think tank Atlantic Council—during an interview with Foreign Policy.

Photo by Megaplumpudding own work at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanna_Liubakova#/media/File:Hanna_Liubakova.jpg

“We know through surveys that there is a large section of society against the deployment of troops to Ukraine,” Liubakova noted, “it is hard politically to justify it. 

“The Belarus army consists of conscripts, young men who are not in high positions. They’re not motivated to fight. If their bodies come back to Belarus, it could start protests. It is hard to gauge how big they would be, but it would be a destabilizing factor for Lukashenko,” Liubakova added. 

But Lukashenko may be left with no choice but to invade Ukraine. There are an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 Russian troops now stationed in Belarus and recent unintended escalations from Ukraine may pull those troops and Lukashenko’s forces into northern Ukraine. 

On December 29th a Ukrainian S-300 missile reportedly landed in Belarusian territory and has heightened tensions between Ukraine and its northern neighbor. 

But most experts agree that it is unlikely Belarus will enter the war, even if Russian forces start a new offensive in northern Ukraine.