Ukrainian general warns Putin is preparing new major winter offensive

Russian forces are planning a new major offensive this winter according to Ukraine’s top commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi and other officials who are familiar with the situation on the ground.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief warned last week that he expects a new winter offensive to kick off shortly before March somewhere in the east and believes that the Russians could make another push for Kyiv. 

“I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv,” Zaluzhnyi said in an interview with The Economist. 

“I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same,” Zaluzhnyi added, “They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us.” 

General Zaluzhnyi’s assessment also matches concerns coming from the White House and Ukraine’s European allies who are also worried about growing indications from Vladimir Putin that he intends to continue the war. 

On December 16th Putin met with his Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as well as his generals and military chiefs, spending most of the time discussing the country's special military operation.

Russia rejected President Vlodomyr Zelensky’s peace plan on December 13th, dismissing calls for Russian troops to pull out of Ukraine and saying that Kyiv needed to accept the “realities” of Russia’s new territorial acquisitions. 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said those realities included the acceptance of Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian Oblasts.

"The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time," Peskov said. 

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, warned on December 16th that “President Putin is ready to be in this war for a long time and to launch new offensives,” and this is reflected by General Zaluzhnyi estimates of current Russian combat power. 

“We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people,” Zaluzhnyi said, adding that “they are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops.”

On December 16th Russia also launched another devastating barrage of rockets and missiles aimed at Kyiv, leaving many analysts worried that Putin is setting the conditions for a renewed push on Kyiv. 

Although this renewed attack may not be an imminent threat, and analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe it will likely end in failure, it does still pose some risks for Ukraine. 

The primary risk would be an escalation involving Belarus, which the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Serhiy Nayev believes is a distinct possibility after Putin announced an unprecedented visit to Minsk set for December 19th, during which it is assumed he will meet with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to pressure him into Russia’s new offensive against Ukraine. 

“In our opinion, during this meeting,” Lieutenant-General Nayev said during an interview,” the issues of further aggression against Ukraine and the wider involvement of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus in the operation against Ukraine will be worked out, in particular, in our opinion, on land.”

Russia is currently using Belarus as a training ground for its soldiers and General Zaluzhnyi has stated that he can beat back another Russian offensive. But he needs help from the West. 

“I know that I can beat this enemy,” Zaluzhny said, “but I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, and 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades.”