Ukraine is making serious gains in their Bakhmut offensive

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are on the march again and recapturing territory around Bakhmut in a new offensive that has seen Russian positions crumbling and Wagner mercenaries running for their lives.  

Operational security around the surprise offensive has been tight but both sides have slowly released more and more information on the situation around the embattled Bakhmut, and isn’t looking good for Russia. 

According to The Washington Post, Ukrainian forces began attacking Russian positions on the outskirts of Bakhmut on May 6th based on intelligence that indicated the soldiers stationed in the areas around the city weren't expecting to be assaulted. 

“They tried to resist. They fired back. Others escaped, and then some were killed,” one battalion commander from Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade said of the Wagner Group mercenaries he faced off against during a tense 12-hour showdown. 

“But in the end, those who remained alive just ran away,” the battalion commander said, with The Washington Post adding that five dead were left behind and noting that it could not independently verify the details of the battle relayed by the Ukrainian soldier. 

On May 9th, the world got its first glimpse of the situation unfolding on the outskirts of Bakhmut when Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin took to Telegram to berate the regular Russian forces fleeing from positions that took Wagner months to win. 

Prigozhin complained in an audio message that the situation on his western flanks was unfolding “to the worst of the predicted scenarios” according to a CNN translation.

“Those territories that were liberated with the blood and lives of our comrades… are abandoned today almost without any fight by those who are supposed to hold our flanks,” Prigozhin said, referring to the non-Wagner troops tasked with holding the area. 

On May 10th, Ukrainian officials began publicly claiming that the country’s military had conducted a successful offensive around Bakhmut according to the Financial Times. 

“In some areas of the front, the enemy could not resist the onslaught of the Ukrainian defenders and retreated to a distance of up to 2km,” said the Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces Colonel-General Oleksadr Syrsky.

Syrsky went on to explain that despite Russia’s stated goal of capturing Bakhmut before the end of May 9th, they did not capture the city. “The battle for Bakhmut continues,” the Ukrainian Colonel-General added. But where was the offensive heading?

Prigozhin gave onlookers a clue of Ukraine’s plans when he called out Russia’s 72nd Brigade for running away in a video address on May 11th and said in a second address the following day that Bakhmut was at risk of being encircled by Ukrainian forces. 

“There is a serious risk of encirclement of the Private Military Company of Wagner in Bakhmut as a result of the failure of the flanks. The flanks are already cracking and falling through,” Prigozhin said according to a Financial Times translation. 

May 12th also saw Reuters reporting that Moscow was acknowledging its losses around Bakhmut after Defense Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov claimed Ukraine launched an offensive consisting of 40 tanks and 1000 fighters.

"In three days of counter-offensive activity, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bakhmut sector have liberated 17.3 sq. km (6.6 sq. miles) of territory," Ukrainian spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi wrote in a Telegram post on May 12th according to Reuters. 

Cherevatyi’s claim was proved to be generally true based on analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which noted on May 13th in their daily update that Ukraine had  “liberated 16.85 square kilometers in the Bakhmut area during recent counterattacks.”

On May 14th, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna claimed in a Telegram post that Ukraine had captured ten Russian positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut. But this information has not been independently verified. 

The Ukrainian offensive around Bakhmut is still ongoing and on May 14th the Russian Ministry of Defense announced Commander Vyacheslav Makarov of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade and Deputy Commander Yevgeny Brovko were killed as per Reuters. 

How the battle around Bakhmut will end has yet to be seen but it is clear Ukrainian forces are making headway and this could be the start of the major spring counter-offensive.