New data suggests Ukraine might have more tanks than Russia

New data suggests that Ukraine might have more tanks than Russia after the Kremlin suffered seriously heavy losses over the course of nearly a year-and-a-half of brutal war.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy is an independent German think tank that has been tracking the support provided to Ukraine by its Western allies since the war began. 

Figures published by the Kiel Institute on July 7th showed Kyiv has received 471 tanks from its allies since Ukraine was invaded and is waiting on the delivery of another 286. 

Newsweek noted a report put out by the International Institute for Strategic Studies—a British-based think tank—found that Ukraine started the year with 953 main battle tanks. 

Open-source intelligence on losses in the war from the Dutch-based group Oryx found Ukraine had lost approximately 565 tanks as of July 10th, far below what’s been pledged. 

Oryx has also noted that Ukraine had captured 544 Russian tanks, a number that nearly equalizes the losses Kyiv has suffered in battle since the war began in February 2022. 

It's also important to note that Oryx only records losses that can be confirmed via photo or video evidence so figures on destroyed and captured tanks are likely much higher. 

Still, with all things considered, Ukraine isn’t doing too poorly when it comes to reserves of main battle tanks and the country’s armed forces and we can confidently assume Kyiv probably has roughly 1400 tanks, if not more. 

Russia on the other hand has suffered mightily in the last year-and-a-half of war and it is likely Moscow now has fewer available tanks than Ukraine according to available data. 

The Military Balance 2023 report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies put Russia’s available tank stock at the beginning of the year at 1800 Newsweek reported. 

Oryx has visually confirmed Moscow has lost 2103 tanks since the beginning of the war in February 2022 and has captured 144 main battle tanks from Ukraine as of July 10th. 

Using the available data, Bloomberg crunched the numbers of each country's tank stock and noted that at the beginning of the conflict, Russia started with 3147 available tanks. 

Based on its calculations, Bloomberg estimated that Ukraine had roughly 1500 tanks at its disposal while Russia only had roughly 1400 main battle tanks available for the fight. 

While the numbers might give some onlookers hope for Ukraine’s future, it is important to note that the figures are almost certainly inaccurate, and even if they prove true, the numbers of available tank stock don’t tell the full story of the problems facing Kyiv. 

Yohann Michel is an expert in land warfare with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and he told Bloomberg that even if Ukraine and Russia’s tank numbers were similar, Kyiv still has to go on the offensive to regain territory and that will be hard. 

“Even if the situation is more equal in numbers, that isn’t how it works,” said Michel. “The problem is that Ukraine now needs to regain territory, so it’s on the offensive against well-prepared defenses and for that you need a strong advantage.” 

Right now Ukraine may have an advantage in tank numbers but it isn't as strong as it likely needs to be in order to make a huge difference in the war. This same logic would also apply to Russia but Moscow has far deeper reserves of tanks they can refurbish, so Ukriane isn't out of the woods just yet.