Could NATO’s support for Ukraine lead to war with Russia?

On February 1st, Kremlin spokesperson Dimitry Peskov accused the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of using its full infrastructure against Russia, an allegation that could prove to have dire consequences for world peace. 

"We see how NATO’s entire military infrastructure is working against Russia,” Peskov said according to TASS, a Russian news agency. 

“We see how NATO’s entire intelligence infrastructure, including reconnaissance aviation, and satellite groupings are working in the interests of Ukraine in a 24/7 mode," the Kremlin press secretary continued. 

Peskov also allegedly said that such support for Ukraine from NATO created a “hostile” environment for Russia in what amounted to a veiled threat of future escalation by Moscow. 

While NATO has been working behind the scenes to support the Ukrainian war effort, it does seem as if the alliance and its member states have been slowly drawn deeper into the conflict as it approaches its one-year anniversary.

In October, several member states agreed to supply Ukraine with air defense equipment and ammunition necessary to protect its civilian infrastructure against Russia's air campaign aimed at weaponizing winter. 

The United States pledged NASAM systems and even sent its vaunted Patriot missile defense systems—which it said for months was off the table—while Germany sent its feared IRIS-T infrared-guided air defense systems according to BBC News. 

Canada, France, and the Netherlands, all NATO member nations, also supplied air defense systems for Ukraine's defense. But that wasn’t everything they sent. 

Along with Germany, the UK, Poland, and the United States—Canada, France, and the Netherlands have all agreed to send main battle tanks to aid their Eastern European allies, a situation one former adviser to Vladimir Putin said could force an escalation of the war. 

“By sending tanks, the NATO countries are becoming more openly involved in the war and that makes them potential targets,” said Sergey Karaganov.

While Karaganov may believe the sending of Western tanks to Ukraine could make NATO a Russian target, analysts like The Atlantic’s Tim Nichols believe that it was a necessary step to defend the international order and world safety. 

“This is no longer about Russia’s neo-imperial dreams or Ukraine’s borders,” Nichols wrote in a January 23rd opinion piece. 

“This is a fight for the future of the international system and the safety of us all,” Nichols added. 

Nichols opposes direct NATO intervention in the war but believes that the West must arm Ukraine with whatever is required to defend its territory and win the war, a sentiment that will certainly lead to a deeper escalation of the conflict. 

In December 2022, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned NATO nations that their military assistance for Ukraine was making them "legitimate military targets."

"Today... the main question is whether the hybrid war de facto declared on our country by NATO can be considered to be the alliance's entry into war with Russia?" Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel in a translation provided by Newsweek.

"Is it possible to view the delivery of a large volume of weapons to Ukraine as an attack on Russia?" Medvedev added.

On January 22nd, Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin threatened global catastrophe if NATO actually began supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine.

“Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said.

“If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons,” Volodin added.

As debates rage on whether or not NATO-aligned countries should send modern F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine—and the UK signals its willingness to supply Ukranian forces with long-range missiles able to strike targets as far as 350 miles—all eyes are on Vladimir Putin and what he will do in response to the ever-increasing, but extremely necessary, support NATO countries are providing to Ukraine.