Exploring Kamala’s Odds: polls predict 2024 showdown with Trump

Delegates could still vote for another candidate

She has the same disadvantage Biden had against Trump

Only a third of voters think Harris could beat Trump

From a supporting role to a leading one?

Could Kamala beat Donald?

Vice President Kamala Harris, though not yet the official candidate, has secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become her party’s nominee against Donald Trump, according to an Associated Press survey.

Delegates could still vote for another candidate

By Monday night, Harris had the support of well more than the 1,976 delegates she’ll need to win on a first ballot, according to the AP tally. However, the convention delegates are still free to vote for the candidate of their choice at the convention in August.

Could she beat Trump?

But although the top choice for Democrats, is Harris more popular than Biden was? And more importantly, does she have what it takes to beat Trump? Although no new polls have come out since Biden’s decision to step aside, this is what earlier ones showed:

Harris is as popular as Biden

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on July 2, Harris trailed Trump by one percentage point at 42% to 43%, a difference that was well within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, a showing statistically just as strong as Biden's, Reuters reported.

She has the same disadvantage Biden had against Trump

Similarly, RealClearPolling averages show that almost all surveys suggest that Harris has basically the same disadvantage as Biden in the run against Trump.

One poll showed she would lead Trump

One ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, released on July 11, surveyed 2,431 adults and found that if Harris were to face Trump, she would win with a 49% over 46%.

Only a third of voters think Harris could beat Trump

However, a poll conducted by Politico and Morning Consult earlier in July found that only a third of voters think it's likely Harris would win the presidential election, and just 3 in 5 Democrats think she would prevail.

Less than 40% approval rating

Moreover, her approval rating is underwater. Less than 40% of Americans approve of the job she is doing as vice president, FiveThirtyEight's polling averages show. However, Biden’s and Trump’s approval ratings are not much better, with 38% and 42% of approval respectively.

Criticized for not having a larger role

Harris has been widely criticized since taking office for not having a larger, more defined role in the Biden administration. Less than a year into Biden's presidency, the White House was forced to issue a statement responding to attacks that Harris had not lived up to expectations.

From a supporting role to a leading one?

However, Harris’s clear defense of abortion rights, a strong Democrat issue, helped her to regain some approval. Could a role as presidential candidate further improve her image as oppose to a supportive role, like the one she’s had up until now? We’ll just have to wait and see.

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