The world isn't ready to handle the possibility of a future asteroid impact on Earth

An exercise showed we aren't prepared
We wouldn't be ready in time to handle an impact
Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise 5
The conditions of the exercise
Uncertainties and consequences
Skepticism over adequate funding
The problems the world would face
Knowledge is power in the fight
Misinformation and disinformation
Space agencies just aren’t ready
Lacking the capacity to act quickly
The global system to react is broken
The decision making process is unclear
No one has defined how to tackle the problem
Shortcoming revealed
Uncovering challenges
The only disaster we can predict in advance
An exercise showed we aren't prepared

Asteroids have hit the Earth before and dealt serious damage to the planet long before humans evolved into the technologically advanced species that we are today. But even with all our knowledge, we're not ready for the next major impact event that could come our way according to researchers.

We wouldn't be ready in time to handle an impact

You might be surprised to learn that scientists on Earth aren't nearly as prepared as they should be if an asteroid was to hit our planet. Even with more than ten years of warning, research from a coalition of US government agencies has demonstrated that Earth could not be defended.

 

Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise 5

In April 2024, NASA and several U.S. government agencies conducted a tabletop game exercise that gave the group a chance to plot their response to a future asteroid strike. This was the fifth of such exercises.  

Photo Credit: NASA/JHU-APL/Ed Whitman

The conditions of the exercise

The participants were notified that there was a 72% chance an asteroid would strike the Earth on a 14-year time horizon with a specific scenario playing out, and the findings of the exercise were very concerning. 

Uncertainties and consequences

The exercise revealed the multiple uncertainties about the asteroid's potential impact as well as its consequences posed a serious challenge to participants and their response according to a report on the exercise from NASA. 

Skepticism over adequate funding

One of the most significant problems for participants was their skepticism over whether or not there would be the funding required to gather more information about the threat. 

The problems the world would face

“Sustaining the space mission, disaster preparedness, and communications efforts across a 14-year timeline would be challenging due to budget cycles, changes in political leadership, personnel, and ever-changing world events," the NASA report noted

Knowledge is power in the fight

The participants expressed a desire to know as much as possible about the forthcoming asteroid impact so that they could manage its risk and devise a way to stop the asteroid but this proved more difficult than they anticipated. 

Misinformation and disinformation

Another interesting problem pointed out would be the misinformation and disinformation that would need to be dealt with under any potential future asteroid impact scenario. 

Space agencies just aren’t ready

The biggest problem uncovered by the exercise was the revelation that space agencies weren’t ready to implement a plan to mitigate an asteroid impact, The Register reported. 

Lacking the capacity to act quickly

“Not only are we not sure if we have the capacity to launch the space mission, but we're also not sure about the process required to decide which one to launch,” The Register explained. 

The global system to react is broken

The exercise also revealed that the "role of the UN-endorsed Space Mission Planning and Advisory Group in an asteroid impact threat scenario is not fully understood by all participants."

The decision making process is unclear

"The process for making decisions about space missions in an asteroid threat scenario remains unclear,” the NASA report on the Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise 5 report stated. 

No one has defined how to tackle the problem

“The methodology has not been adequately defined in the US or internationally,” the asteroid impact report continued, adding that several criteria have not been sufficiently codified.

Shortcoming revealed

Thanks to the exercise, the shortcomings of any potential response to an asteroid strike on Earth have been revealed and have provided the world with the opportunity to overcome the problems a future asteroid impact could pose.  

Uncovering challenges

“The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances,” explained Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA, according to a press release. 

The only disaster we can predict in advance

“A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent,” Johnson added, 

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