Winter is coming but Ukraine has plans to continue its offensive

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been making slow and steady progress in their battle to take back the occupied territories in the south of the country. However, winter is on its way and Ukraine's counter-offensive has yet to break through. So what happens next?

Counteroffensive actions aren’t going to stop once winter arrives according to Ukraine's head of intelligence Kyrylo Budanov. Fighting will continue in the cold regardless of if it's more difficult, the spy chief explained during a conference in Kyiv in early September. 

"Combat actions will continue in one way or another. In the cold, wet and mud, it is more difficult to fight. Fighting will continue. The counteroffensive will continue," Budanov was quoted as saying according to a translation of his comments from Reuters. 

Ukraine’s long-anticipated counter-offensive has seen the country’s armed forces gain a number of tactical victories since it was launched at the beginning of the summer but Kyiv has yet to achieve the killing blow that would force major withdrawals from Russia.

However, winter could end up being the perfect time for Ukraine to finally knock a big portion of Russia’s logistical chain out of the fight and Kyiv is well-placed to do so with it now having some fire control over the southern supply routes that feed its frontline men. 

David Axe noted in a recent article on the situation unfolding along the Tokmak axis that sometime in the first week of October, Ukrainian artillery was able to get within range of Tokmak and began hitting Russian supply trains that were making their way to the city. 

Video footage of a recent attack showed that Ukrainian artillery crews were able to blow up a train carrying ammunition. This will have several important implications for the war. Not only will it allow Kyiv to slow the flow of supplies but lead to a larger tactical victory. 

“Russian logistics in occupied southern Ukraine now are in serious trouble. Tokmak is a major road and rail hub: arguably the most important hub in southwestern Ukraine,” Axe explained, adding that Russia’s position in the south of the country could be threatened. 

“Unravel the overland supply lines threading through Tokmak,” Axe continued, “and you unravel the garrisons that depend on those supply lines for food, fuel, ammunition and replacement troops and vehicles.” But how will Ukraine utilize this possible advantage?

Starving Russian forces from their supplies is part of a larger strategy of their offensive and will work well with changes in tactics on the ground that have seen Kyiv shift away from large-scale attacks and towards smaller assault groups of ten to fifteen soldiers. 

General Oleksandr Tarnavksy told CNN during an exclusive interview in late September that neither the Russians nor his forces used companies, battalions, or brigades instead they focused on using small assault squads of ten to fifteen soldiers to move forward. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons: By President Of Ukraine from Україна - President of Ukraine presented state awards to the Ukrainian servicemen who liberated the Kherson region., CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=125519308

“The main skill of every commander at any level is preserving personnel,” Tarnavsky told CNN Senior International Correspondent Fred Pleitgen, who added that Ukraine was unwilling to risk the high casualties that come with larger armored assaults. 

Tarnavksy explained that this style of warfare would work well in the mud and cold of the country's fall and winter months but added that any advancement in winter was going to be difficult. However, he was confident it wouldn’t make a difference for the offensive. 

“The weather can be a serious obstacle during an advance. But considering how we move forward, and we mostly advance without using vehicles, I don’t think it will heavily influence that stage of counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky said. 

However, the key to victory will be Kyiv’s ability to continue degrading Russia’s combat abilities so that their small unit tactics can achieve the kind of breakthrough in the south that would make Russia’s position in the southern portion of the country untenable.

Whether or not Ukraine can achieve this type of victory with their counter-offensive has yet to be seen but you should expect to see fierce fighting continue into the cold season as Ukraine’s military leadership works to dislodge Russian forces from the country.