Will Wagner really attack Poland from Belarus?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he’s struggling to keep the Wagner Group mercenaries that fled to exile in his country from attacking neighboring Poland. 

Lukashenko explained the situation to Vladimir Putin while in St. Petersburg, meeting with the Russian President for talks between the allies as tensions mount in the region. 

"We began to be bothered by the PMC Wagner, asking to go to the West,” Lukashenko said during his meeting with Putin according to an English translation from News Week. 

When Lukashenko asked the private military company why they wanted to go west, the person he was talking with said: “Well, we'll go on a tour to Warsaw and Rzeszow."

It was not clear if Lukashenko was speaking to a commander of the mercenary group or if the comments came from Wagner’s controversial Russian leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. 

However, what was clear according to Newsweek was that the comments relayed were a veiled reference to attacking the Polish capital as well as a valuable military hub city. 

Lukashenko went on to explain he had the mercenary group under control and wouldn’t let them relocate: “I’m keeping them in the center of Belarus, as was agreed upon.” 

“Therefore, we will oppose this in every possible way, and I ask you to also look at this issue in your own country,” Lukashenko stressed according to Interfax News Agency. 

Newsweek noted Putin exiled the Wagner Group and many of its mercenary soldiers to Belarus after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed armed revolt against the leadership in Moscow. 

The transfer of so many mercenaries to Belarus quickly inflamed tensions in the region and Poland moved to transfer a substantial number of troops to its border with Belarus. 

Poland’s Minister of Defense Mariusz Blaszczak noted two brigades equally over 1000 soldiers and 200 units of equipment were deployed east according to a Reuters report. 

"This is a demonstration of our readiness to respond to attempts at destabilization near the border of our country,” Blaszczak said on Twitter according to a Reuters translation. 

Lukashenko also presented Putin with a map during his St. Petersburg meeting of what he said was a Polish plan to attack Belarus according to reporting from The Telegraph. 

”As we can see that, the ground is being prepared,” Lukashenko said, which was a very interesting comment in light of Putin’s July 21st warning against any attack on Belarus. 

“Aggression against Belarus will mean aggression against the Russian Federation,” the Russian President said during a televised meeting of the country’s Security Council. 

Politico noted Putin went on to say he Russia would respond with all the means at the country’s disposal, which was a thinly veiled reference to the use of nuclear weapons.