Will Ukraine invade Russia and what would be the consequences?

One of the most puzzling questions of the ongoing war in Ukraine is whether or not Kyiv will attack Russia. It’s a confusing question because no one is really sure what it means to Russia, nor what consequences would follow. 

Any passive observer of the conflict might think that Ukraine is already attacking Russia with Kyiv’s many drone strikes that have openly targeted major population centers such as Moscow and airfields behind the Russian border. 

However, drone attacks into the country aren’t designed with conquering Russia in mind but rather serve two important functions for Ukraine: the attacks give Kyiv critical tactical military wins and bring the conflict to the Russians. 

Ukraine's drone operations are undoubtedly attacks on Russian territory but the Kremlin has used the incidents as a means to justify its special military operation inside Ukraine, something that has been evident since at least May. 

Officials in Kyiv launched one of Ukraine’s largest drone assaults on Moscow at the end of May but the Kremlin used the attack as an opportunity for a propaganda win. All eight drones launched were allegedly shot down en route. 

"Everything worked properly, worked well,” explained the Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitri Peskov according to a translation of his comments by Reuters. “The air defense system also worked well,” Peskov added about the attacks. 

Peskov went on to claim that the drone strike on Moscow “once again confirms the need to continue this special military operation and achieve the set goals.” He also added that it was quite clear the drones came from Ukraine.  

Such attacks might provide advantages for Russian officials in helping their propaganda but would Moscow have the same response if Russian territory was attacked by soldiers from Ukraine? Moreover, what does that mean?

In September 2022, Peskov explained that any attack on Moscow’s soon-to-be annexed territories would be an attack against Russia itself when answering a reporter's question about the possibility: "It would not be anything else."

Reuters reported on the comments at the time and noted that roughly one week prior to Peskov’s comments, Vladimir Putin explained he would use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity,” though it didn’t happen.

Ukraine has been nibbling off pieces of Russia’s occupied territories since the beginning of the country’s big summer offensive push and there have been few consequences. So is this territory considered Russian?

The more intriguing question is what would Moscow do if Kyiv attacked Russian territory not taken in the war? Ukraine has been careful to employ paramilitary groups staffed by Russians for incursions into Russia. 

In fact, President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine has no intention of attacking Russia. “We are not planning to attack Russia,” he said in June 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported, and it's something he has affirmed as recently as May 2023. 

“We don’t attack Russian territory, we liberate our own legitimate territory,” Zelensky told reporters during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Schultz in May. “We have neither the time nor the strength to attack Russia,” he said according to The Hill. 

It is very unlikely Ukraine will ever attack any part of Russia that the country held before the outbreak of the war. But that still leaves one final question in play: what will happen when Kyiv attempts to recapture Crimea?

Taking back Crimea has long been an object of conflict for the Ukrainians. In August, Zelensky made it clear, at least since his appearance at the World Economic Forum, that Crimea was Ukrainian territory and would be recaptured.  

“Crimea is our land, our territory,” Zelensky said during a video appearance at the World Economic Forum according to a report from The Hill.  “It is our sea and our mountains. Give us your weapons — we will return what is ours.”

The Atlantic Council has called Crimea Moscow’s last red line and noted that leadership in the Kremlin has made it clear any large-scale attack on the peninsula would be seen as an existential threat against Russia. 

However, how Moscow would respond to an attack on Crimea is still unclear, especially in light of how the Kremlin has responded to other attacks on Russian soil. But it is the closest Ukraine will come to attacking Russian land. 

A tactical nuclear warhead could be an appropriate response in Russia’s halls of power if Crimea is threatened. But such a drastic move only seems reasonable in the eyes of those who hold power in Moscow. 

Much of the international community sees Crimea is Ukrainian and the United Nations adopted resolution 68/262 on March 27th, 2014 stating the body did not recognize any change in Crimea’s political status according to the U.S. State Department.