Will Putin’s latest political gamble come back to hurt him?

President Vladimir Putin doesn’t want to announce another troop mobilization in Russia until after the country’s next big election in 2024. But will Putin’s political gamble pay off or will it put the Russian President’s entire war in Ukraine at risk?

Putin hasn’t officially announced his intention to run for reelection but Newsweek noted that Russia’s current head of state is already the anticipated winner of the next election in March 2024 despite the special military operation in Ukraine.

On October 9th, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Moscow would move forward with its planned election in March, commenting in a press conference that Russia would comply with the requirements of its democracy and constitution. 

Reuters reported Peskov’s comments came in response to remarks made by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in which Kadyrov stated Russia should postpone its upcoming election in light of the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. 

“It is quite obvious that such a large-scale event will be taken advantage of and will be used for provocations by many unfriendly countries… Our enemies will try to shake up the situation within the state,” Kadyrov wrote on Telegram Radio Free Europe reported. 

Alternatively, Kadyrov suggested Russia could hold a vote on a single candidate, which he suggested could be Putin according to the Russian news outlet Current Times. This would make sense since intelligence reports indicate Putin will run for re-election.  

Even though Putin has yet to announce his re-election campaign, an intelligence report from the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence explained that Putin will almost certainly run again and he could kick off his unofficial campaign as early as November.  

More importantly, Putin’s candidacy could have serious consequences for the Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine since Britain’s Ministry of Defense believes the Kremlin will hold off on mobilizing more troops until after the March elections. 

The intelligence update reported that the Kremlin would attempt to minimize unpopular policy moves in the lead-up to the country’s elections, adding that it was highly unlikely Russia would mobilize another round of soldiers before the election. 

According to UK intelligence, elections in Russia are often subject to interference from the Kremlin and they “remain a core tool of political legitimization.” This means that the March 17th elections in Russia will be used to legitimize the ongoing war. 

“It is almost certain that Putin’s election campaign will focus on the theme of Russia as a separate civilisation in need of defence from external enemies—a narrative frequently used to justify the state’s actions and Putin’s consolidation of power,” the update added. 

George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark Katz told Nesweek the British assessment of Russia’s plans to withhold a further mobilization until after the election “could be correct” but added that it would have consequences.  

Katz said halting mobilization would weaken the possibility of any future offensive but he also added it's possible “Putin was not planning any such offensive but is just focusing on the defensive aim of holding onto the Ukrainian territory that Russia now occupies."

Even if Russia isn’t planning a new offensive in the near future, Russian military analyst Ian Mateev told Radio Free Europe that Putin will need to call a second mobilization due to the necessities of the war in Ukraine. 

"It's connected with the necessity of war. Russian government and military officials are trying to find new troops for voluntary contracts now. But they aren't successful now. And there's no successes at the front," Matveev said. "It makes mobilization inevitable."

However, the real question remains what can Ukraine accomplish in the time it takes for Russia to finish with its election and call up a new round of soldiers? Kyiv’s offensive is going well and Putin’s decision to not call a mobilization now could come to haunt him. 

Russia has only announced one mobilization attempt since the country invaded Ukraine and it called up 300,000 soldiers in September 2022. This was done in order to plug the gaps that had emerged after nearly eight months of warfare.