What’s going on with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko’s health?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko set off alarm bells around the world after he attended Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day parade in Moscow looking extremely unwell. 

Lukashenko later left the celebrations early and returned to Minsk, sparking a slew of speculative news reports about his health condition. But here’s what we actually know. 

On May 9th, Lukashenko could be seen looking very ill with a bandaged right hand while in attendance at Putin’s Victory Day parade in Moscow according to Newsweek.

“What we saw today… he looked really bad. You can say that he is in the worst shape we’ve seen him so far,” said Belarusian opposition politician Valery Kavaleuski according to a report from The Daily Beast. 

“For us, it means that even if he comes back to his feet, it is likely that this is the beginning of his physical degradation. And we have to account for this and be adequately prepared for possible scenarios,” Kavaleuski added. 

Belarusian political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets reported later on May 9th on his Telegram channel that Lukasheno could not attend the Victory Day state meal and left Moscow while being escorted to the airport by an ambulance. 

Bolkunets claim was never independently verified and Lukashenko later appeared at his own country’s Victory Day celebrations. But Belarussian news outlet Nasha Niva noted he did not give his usual speech and only took part in the flower laying ceremonies. 

Nasha Niva also reported that Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin gave the Victory Day speech for Lukashenko, a situation the news outlet called “an extraordinary situation for Belarus, where Lukashenka has absolute power,” according to a Google translation.

Reuters also noted that Lukashenko had departed from the customary military uniform he would normally wear on Victory Day in Belarus and instead just wore civilian clothes. 

On May 10th, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on Lukashenko's health, saying “​it would be extremely inappropriate,” and added that he left Moscow because of his commitments in Minsk according to The Russian News Agency (TASS).

Lukashenko disappeared after May 9th and onlookers began to question if he was suffering from some kind of major health crisis. Ukraine’s Former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs explained the full situation in a May 13th Twitter post. 

“On 9th May in Moscow Lukashenko looked sick, had a bandaged hand and left for Minsk early. Back in Belarus, he didn't deliver the 9th May speech for the first time ever. Lukashenko hasn't appeared in public since then,” Anton Gerashchenko wrote. 

“Today, information appeared that Lukashenko and his entourage have some type of flu. Interesting,” Ukraine’s Former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs added. 

On May 14th, Lukashenko missed the country’s Flag Day and Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko read a message on behalf of the president’s behalf according to the Financial Times, which also noted Lukashenko’s reappearance the following day. 

“Lukashenko’s press service released a video on Monday of the Belarusian president dressed in military garb and discussing recent incidents in Russia involving the shooting down of helicopters and fighter jets,” wrote Max Seddon and Raphael Minder. 

Screenshot by Telegram @pul_1

However, with all of the speculation about Lukashenko’s health still swilling, what would happen to Belarus if its president pass away?

In May 2021, Lukashenko signed a decree that stated in the event of his death, power would be transferred to a Security Council of 20 top-ranking government officials, among which his son plays a prominent role according to Voice of America. 

Until 2021, Belarusian law dictated that the country's prime minister would take over presidential power in the event that the presidency was vacant. But Lukashenko’s law change would effectively hand power over to the country’s most important leaders, and his closest allies.

How things would play out in the event of Lukashenko’s death is truly unknown. There could be mass instability among the population or Russia could move to annex the border nation that has been its staunchest ally since the breakup of the Soviet Union. 

In January, Radio Free Europe reported that there were 30,000 Russian troops stationed in Belarus so it is anybody’s guess how the situation would unfold, though the transition to another pro-Russian government in Minsk could spell danger for Ukraine…

Lukashenko is often considered the last dictator in Europe according to Wikipedia and has wielded absolute power in Belarus since 1994, and his death would mark the end of a nearly thirty-year rule over the Belarusian people.