Why having sent weapons to help Ukraine could prove catastrophic

Last year, experts warned  the US and its NATO allies about the dangers of weapons sent to help Ukraine ending up in the hands of criminals and black markets.

Now, Russia has been capturing some of the provided weapons and equipment left on the battlefield in Ukraine and sending them to Iran, where the US believes Tehran will try to reverse-engineer the systems, CNN reported.

Russia has flown the seized weapons to Iran to dismantle and analyze, likely so the Iranian military can attempt to make their own version of the weapons, thus also encouraging Iran to maintain its support for Russia’s war, sources told CNN.

There’s no question however that Western weaponry has helped Ukraine. Yet there are risks, experts say, that could arise later on, maybe until the end of the war.

The war has united the people of Ukraine and diverting weapons meant for combat would be an act of treason for a Ukrainian, experts have said. But as seen now, the arms meant for one country can end up in others.

"So long as there remains the intense, frontline demand for small arms, I think it's going to be a pretty strong draw for those weapons to remain on the battlefield," said Elias Yousif to Insider, a research analyst that specialises on international security issues.

That said, Yousif added, "I would hope that there is some planning for the day after."

Even a tiny fraction of the weapons provided to Ukraine, a country with a decades-long problem of corruption, making it to the black market could be potentially devastating, according to experts.

The concern is such that even Jürgen Stock, head of Interpol (pictured), warned all countries about the dangerous possibility of weapons sent to Ukraine ending up in criminal hands.

Photo: Interpol

"The high availability of weapons during the current conflict will result in the proliferation of illicit weapons in the post-conflict phase," said Jürgen Stock to The Guardian.

Nils Duquet, director of the Flemish Peace Institute also warned: "There are very significant risks associated to the proliferation of weapons in Ukraine at the moment, in particular regarding small arms and light weapons", he said to AFP.

"We'll be laughing on the other side of our faces once we're seeing bank robberies with Javelins", Duquet added, referring to the US-made anti-tank missiles.

The European criminal gangs could see their power increased in terms of weapons, as happened when the Soviet Union collapsed and the mafias were able to access weapons which until then were only intended for military purposes.

Likewise, when the United States left Afghanistan in August 2021, much of the weapons sent to the country ended up in the hands of the Taliban or sold on the illegal market.

"We can expect an influx of weapons into Europe but we have to expect these weapons to be shipped not only to neighboring countries but to other continents",  said the head of Interpol.

Photo: Interpol

In fact, Jürgen Stock said in June, 2022,  that criminals were already focusing on how to get their hands on the weapons, warning of movements to collect them, even with the war at a critical point.

However, countries didn’t stop sending weapons, until September, when it was reported that they were running out of weapons to send to Ukraine, according to CNBC.

Stock said the Interpol urged members to use its database to help “track and trace” the weapons. “We are in contact with member countries to encourage them to use these tools”, he said.

Ukraine has also created a commission to monitor the influx of arms and reassure allies that they are indeed being used on the battlefield. Some weapons are also affixed with GPS trackers, the country's defense minister told the BBC.

So even if there isn’t any evidence of massive leakages of weapons out from the Ukraine conflict, we’ll have to wait till the war ends to see if the steps taken to address the problem will work or if it will result in catastrophe.