US general’s leaked memo warns war with China is coming soon

The United States of America could be at war with China and President Xi Jinping in as little as two years according to senior U.S. Air Force General Michael Minihan.

“I hope I am wrong.” General Minihan wrote in a recently leaked memo to the troops under his command. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”

Minihan is a four-star U.S. general and head of America’s Air Mobility Command, which oversees the Airforce’s transport and refueling fleet according to The Washington Post.

“Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” Minihan continued in his memo, adding that “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason.”

Minihan told his troops that they needed to be ready since he viewed the 2024 U.S. presidential elections as a pivotal moment where the American system would be distracted long enough to offer Xi a shot at capturing Taiwan. 

 "Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” General Minihan wrote. But how could a Chinese invasion of Taiwan spark a war between China and the United States?

Since the end of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty in 1980, the United States has officially adopted a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to Taiwan’s defense. 

Successive American administrations have not said whether or not they would send troops to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty in the event of a Chinese invasion. 

While the United States has no official defense treaty with Taiwan like it does with South Korea and Japan, the country forms a vital part of the West’s first line of defense against China’s ability to project power into the Pacific Ocean. 

“Taiwan offers a key strategic link, both within the Indo-Pacific and on the global stage,” wrote John Barranco, a member of the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank. 

“Much of the United States’ ability to prevent Chinese power projection in the Indo-Pacific hinges upon its relationship with Taiwan,” Barranco added. 

In September 2022, President Joe Biden attempted to set the record straight regarding his administration's views on Taiwan’s defense. 

When asked in a 60 Minutes interview if he was willing to defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden answered, “Yes,” an answer he’d given several times throughout his presidency. 

Several other top-ranking American generals and admirals have also voiced their opinions on the possibility of a coming war with China. 

In October 2022, Admiral Michael Gilday suggested that Xi Jinping would be ready to take Taiwan by 2027 while Admiral Philip Davidson said in March 2021 that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was likely to “manifest during this decade.”

“What we've seen over the past 20 years,” Admiral Gilday said during an October 2022 speaking event with the Atlantic Council, “is that [the Chinese] have delivered on every promise they've made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it."

Minihan’s leaked memo was dated February 1st 2022 according to The Washington Post and has been verified as authentic by Major Hope Cronin, a United States Airforce spokesperson.