Ukrainian forces just downed another Russia fighter jet

Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jet with shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles somewhere near the embattled garrison town of Avdiivka according to Colonel Andriy Demchenko.

Colonel Demchenko is a spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and explained during a recent interview with RBC-Ukraine that a unit of border guards was able to shoot down a Russian fighter. 

Photo Credit: Media Center Ukraine by Ukrainform

"An anti-aircraft missile fired by border guards from MANPADS hit an aerial target. The hostile plane went up in smoke,” Demchenko explained according to a translation of his comments by Ukrainska Pravda.  

Colonel Demchenko added that the damaged jet was last seen losing altitude before it dipped behind the horizon. Ukraine’s General Staff included the downed jet in its daily casualty update on October 30th. 

Photo Credit Wiki Commons By Vitaly V. Kuzmin

If the news of the downed Su-25 proves true, it would bring the total number of aircraft destroyed since the invasion of Ukraine began to 321. However, that number is Kyiv’s total tally and could be wrong.

Dutch open-source intelligence firm Oryx has been tracking both Russian and Ukrainian losses of equipment that can be independently verified through picture or video evidence. It reports Russia has lost 93 aircraft. 

Of the 93 aircraft lost, Oryx noted that 85 were destroyed and 8 damaged. The Su-25 is among the largest type of aircraft lost since the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine and Russia has 30 destroyed or damaged. 

This isn’t the first time Ukrainian officials have claimed their forces shot down an Su-25 during the recent defense of Avdiivka. Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi claimed 3 kills in the first week of the battle.

The reason why Brigadier General Tarnavskyi’s claims could be accurate is because the Su-25 was designed for ground support and Military Today noted the jet is the “mainstay of Russian ground-attack regiments.”

‘They were designed to fly low and give support to troops. But that low flying also makes them vulnerable to air-defense systems,” wrote Business Insider’s ​​Sinéad Baker, which is how Ukrainian soldiers are knocking the jets out. 

Photo Credit Wiki Commons By Vitaly V. Kuzmin

Ukrainian forces like the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade have released videos on social media showing their troops taking out Su-25s using Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS) like the 9K38 Igla. 

Losing any aircraft is likely to degrade Russia’s combat power in Ukraine but the loss of an Su-25 is particularly damaging since Moscow only has about 250 of the aircraft in all of its variants according to Military Today.

Military Today also reported that a single Su-25 in good conduction can cost as much as $11 million dollars, which shows just how important Avdiivka must be to Russia’s leaders in Moscow if it is risking so many jets. 

Photo Credit Wiki Commons By Fedor Leukhin

Newsweek’s Ellie Cook noted Russia has repeatedly tried to capture Avdiivka but has not been able to break its defensive lines. “Claiming control of Avdiivka… would be a significant strategic and symbolic victory for the Kremlin.”

Not only would taking Avdiivka give Vladimir Putin a much needed win before the March elections in Russia, it would also provide Russian forces with the launching pad needed to complete their conquest of Donetsk Oblast. 

“Capturing Avdiivka could open up a 30 to 40 mile stretch of the front line and could create a gateway from occupied Donetsk to other cities… which are key to Putin's goal of conquering the entire Donetsk region,” The Washington Post reported. 

Russia has only made minor gains towards capturing the city as of November 1st, but if Moscow is able to take Avdiivka, it could prove disastrous for Ukraine. The ultimate fate of Donetsk may not rest on the defense of Avdiivka.