Ukraine sees signs Russia is worried about keeping Crimea

Officials in Ukraine see signs that Russian forces in Crimea are preparing to abandon the peninsula in the event that the Kremlin’s ability to hold the all-too-important region becomes untenable according to claims from the representative in charge of the area. 

Tamila Tasheva has served as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s permanent representative for Crimea since April 2022 and she recently told Newsweek Kyiv has seen signs that Russian forces could be preparing to withdraw from the peninsula. 

"Ukraine is actively preparing to bring Crimea and other occupied territories back, and the Russians see that," Tasheva explained before discussing the measures Ukrainian forces have taken to set the conditions needed to precipitate a Russian withdrawal. 

“Since at least August, there have been strikes or sabotage on Russia's military and transport infrastructure, including the railway hub, or the Russian-held port, or the explosion on the Crimean bridge." Kyiv’s Crimean representative added. 

Tasheva went on to explain that the actions taken against Russian logistics forced Moscow to redeploy its troops, vehicles, and machinery farther away from the frontline and more inland—a situation that Tasheva reveals a lot about Russia’s future intentions. 

“That tells us that they are expecting the situation to get worse, and they have to explain this to the local population, too,” Tasheva explained, adding that the narrative in Crimea has changed from what it was earlier in the war.

Russia’s current narrative has transformed from one declaring Moscow could protect the Crimean Peninsula with its strong air defense to one telling citizens they don’t need to be worried about recent shelling and explosions because they’re drills or accidents. 

However, Russians who moved to Crimea after the region was annexed in 2014 should be worried since Kyiv has made it very clear that it doesn’t intend to make peace until all of the territory occupied by Russia has been returned to Ukraine—including Crimea. 

"We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea,” President Zelensky said in a July 3rd CNN interview relating his most recent claims about Crimea. “While Crimea is under Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet," Zelensky added. 

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhny has also voiced his adamant opinion that the war with Russia isn’t going to be over until Ukraine has recaptured the Crimean Peninsula regardless of what the West thinks Putin would do. 

“As soon as I have the means, I’ll do something. I don’t give a d**n—nobody will stop me,” Zaluzhny said during an interview with the Washington Post.  

However, recapturing Crimea through military means will be difficult. The Moscow Times noted in April that the peninsula is connected to the mainland by a narrow isthmus and that Ukraine lacks the amphibious assault capabilities needed to capture it by force. 

“To even reach Crimea, Kyiv's troops will have to fight through some 100 miles of heavily defended territory in occupied Ukraine,” wrote Newsweek. “And to fully isolate the peninsula, Ukrainian forces would have to reach the Sea of Azov coast.”

The next best option would be to force Russia out in the same way they were able to force Russian troops out of their Kherson bridgehead in the summer of 2022 and that may be exactly what Ukraine has planned with the way they’ve structured their attacks. 

"Of course, Crimea remains an important military base for the Russians, they usually have about 35-37,000 officers and soldiers deployed there," Tamila Tasheva said.

"But if you look at satellite images now, you can see that they are building fortifications along the western shore, possibly as a preventative measure against a possible amphibious landing," Tasheva added. 

There are other signs Russians are getting worried, too. Beaches are closed and traffic jams on the Kerch Bridge to the mainland are common. The war is eroding security on the peninsula according to Newsweek, hopefully enough to see Russia abandon it.