The Russian way of war in Ukraine is leading to huge personnel losses

On May 31st, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence confirmed that Moscow has likely suffered half a million casualties since launching its invasion of Ukraine and pointed out that these losses were due to Russian military tactics.

The defence ministry war update reported that “the elevated casualty rate is highly likely a reflection of Russia's ongoing attritional offensive” which at the time of the update was being conducted all across the frontlines in Ukraine.

Defence ministry analysts explained that limited training prevented Russian forces from carrying out more complex offensive operations, resulting in the country’s commanders using small-scale and costly attacks to weaken Ukrainian defenses. 

Russia could absorb the increasing losses at that time because Moscow was recruiting enough new soldiers to replenish those lost in its attritional offensive attacks but it was a situation that would hamper the Russian war effort. 

“Russia continues to recruit additional forces to sustain this approach. However, the need to continuously replenish front line personnel will almost certainly continue to limit Russia's ability to generate higher capability,” the defence ministry update explained. 

Only a few weeks on from the defence ministry’s prediction, other signs are starting to show that the Russian way of war in Ukraine is seriously affecting the nation’s combat ability according to one Ukrainian official. 

Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk explained in a July 9th essay published by The New Voice of Ukraine that Moscow would likely have trouble sustaining the initiative using its manpower and equipment advantages. 

Havrylyuk reported that Russia lost 5,000 military personnel in the battles to capture one district in the hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a settlement Moscow was hoping to have taken before May 9th but has been battling to capture for months.

Russia reported that its military forces managed to capture a key district of Chasiv Yar according to CNN, which the American news outlet noted “could pose major problems for Ukrainian troops trying to defend the area from further advances.”

Business Insider reported on Havrylyuk’s claims and noted they could not be independently verified. However, there are clear signs Russia is suffering serious losses as it tries to find a path to victory in eastern Ukraine. 

The latest intelligence update on war losses from the UK Ministry of Defence published to the social media platform X on July 12th reported that the average Russian casualty rate in Ukraine increased to a high of 1,226 in May and dipped to 1,163 in June. 

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia's opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” the war update explained.

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia's ability to exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the frontline further,” the update added. 

Defence ministry analysts also believe that the average Russian daily casualty rate will remain above 1,000 as Moscow continues to try and “overmatch Ukrainian positions with mass.” Whether or not this will be effective has yet to be seen. 

What we do know is that Russia is suffering heavy losses. The UK Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia has lost over 70,000 personnel in the two months that preceded July 12th, and Ukrainian estimates on total losses are just as high. 

As of July 12th, the Ukrainian General Staff projected in its daily update on Russian war losses that Moscow had suffered 556,650 personnel losses since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began back in February 2022. 

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