Trump has been found guilty, but will he serve jail time?

A Manhattan jury has found former US President Donald Trump guilty of 34 charges of falsifying business records, becoming the first former or current US President to be indicated and convicted for a crime.

“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be November 5, by the people”, Trump declared outside the courtroom, as quoted by CNN.

Trump, who was convicted in New York, still has pending trials in Florida, Georgia, and Washington DC. However, will the former and probably future US President ever see the interior of a jail cell?

Political news website Politico argues that, in regard to the Stormy Daniels trial in New York, in any other similar case a conviction would probably mean a hefty fine, particularly for a 77-year-old first-time offender like Donald Trump.

CBS News explains that similar cases to the Stormy Daniels trial, in which the defendant was accused of falsifying business records, the most severe sentence was four years in prison and a 5,000-dollar fine. Only one in 10 ending up in jail time. However, the political implications mean that there’s nothing to compare it to.

Trump also has the option to appeal the guilty verdict, which the BBC remarks that could drag the whole case for months, in parallel to the campaign trail.

This isn’t even taking into consideration the cases against Trump in Florida, Georgia, and Washington D.C., which are directly connected to his time as president and his attempt to tamper with the 2020 presidential election results.

TIME magazine writes that campaigning with a criminal conviction is uncharted territory in US presidential politics, and the legal problems will only become more severe if he wins the presidential election in November.

However, The New York Times highlights that the US Constitution doesn’t disqualify presidential candidates due to criminal convictions, even if they are serving jail time.

Two unsuccessful presidential candidates in the past have actually run while being convicted. One of them was the socialist Eugene V. Debs in 1920, who got over 900,000 votes while serving time in Atlanta for actively opposing World War 1.

However, then there’s the question of how a conviction would affect Trump’s public image among the conservative base. A poll done in early 2024 by Bloomberg reveals that 53% of voters in key states would refuse to vote Republican if he was convicted.

At the same time, the former and potentially future US President has portrayed himself as a victim of the “deep state” establishment. Being convicted would play right into his narrative and only embolden his followers.

The New York Times points out that if Trump gets elected from prison, it will create a legal and political crisis that would probably be solved in the courts.

Currently, the United States Supreme Court has a conservative majority that could potentially rule in the New York mogul’s favor. That could put an end to the matter, at least legally, for Donald Trump.

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