Upcoming spring draft in Russia would seriously impact society, experts say

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and President Putin signaled in January that they wanted to increase the size of the Russian military by 350,000 over the next three years.

However, fears keep growing as Independent website Novaya Gazeta Europe reported, based on its government sources, that the mobilization decrees allows the Ministry of Defense to call up to a million people.

Russia also plans to expand the age range of the draft from 18-27 (current range) to 21–30 years old, according to Russian lawmakers.

Such a shift would create disorder within the economy and have profound demographic consequences, pushing down the country’s birthrate still further.

Furthermore, it would also spark draft resistance and flight by men subject to the draft, as well as political protests among the wives and mothers of the men sent to fight in Ukraine, he added.

As seen in September 2022, when Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilization since World War II, there was a huge exodus of Russian people.

International flights departing Russia skyrocketed and the five EU countries bordering Russia were so oversaturated that they stopped allowing Russians to enter on tourist visas.

Over the past six months, data posted by American border authorities shows that the number of Russian citizens they have encountered has nearly tripled: from 1,645 Russians in August 2022 (the month before Russia’s draft began) to 4,509 in January.

Though some Russians manage to get out of the country, it’s still tough to make it, since fleeing a draft is not considered a reason to seek asylum. At least for now.

The EU Commission spokesperson on home affairs, Anitta Hipper, said that the bloc would meet to discuss the issuance of humanitarian visas to Russians fleeing mobilization.

Many resorted to driving out of the country, with massive lines forming at the Georgian border, with wait times of at least 12 hours reported to enter the country, which does not require a travel visa for Russians.

Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan, Tashkent and Baku, the capitals of countries allowing Russians visa-free entry, were sold out one week after the draft announcement, while the cheapest one-way flight from Moscow to Dubai cost about 370,000 rubles (more than $6200).

Some Russian cities have trains to Kazakhstan. One 28-year-old man told The Guardian that around 80% of the people onboard were Russian men aged 20-45.

Image: David Becker/Unsplash

In fact, about 98,000 Russian citizens have entered Kazakhstan alone since September 21, said the migration department of the Kazakh Interior Ministry.

Though the majority of Russians fleeing the country are men, a number of women, mostly medics, similarly decided to leave the country after reports showed that Russia was calling up health professionals to the front.

NGOs reported that there was an even bigger exodus of Russians than when the war started. And with another draft the situation could get worse.