Russia is suffering highest casualties of the year in new offensive

Russia is suffering the highest casualty rate the country has experienced this year and it is being driven by Moscow’s unrelenting offensive against the Ukrainian garrison town of Avdiivka according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence. 

On October 28th, the British Ministry of Defence wrote in its daily update on the ongoing war in Ukraine that the Kremlin had committed significant forces to capture the town of Avdiivka, adding that the mission was not going well. 

“Over the last week, heavy but inconclusive fighting has continued around the Donetsk Oblast town of Avdiivka, where Russia initiated a major offensive effort in mid-October 2023,” the war update noted about ongoing fighting. 

“Russia has probably committed elements of up to eight brigades to the sector. These elements have likely suffered some of Russia’s highest casualty rates of 2023 so far,” the report added before going on to analyze the situation. 

Military bloggers in Russia have been highly critical of the offensive and the tactics that are being used to capture the town according to the ministry update, which pointed out Russia’s core military-political challenge remains unchanged.

“Political leaders demand more territory to be seized but the military cannot generate effective operational level offensive action,” the update explained. This is why Russia has seen such a drastic uptick in casualties from its offensive. 

Knowing just how many casualties Russia has suffered so far in the battle to take the town of Avdiivka is difficult to pinpoint since Moscow doesn’t release its casualty data but internal media sources have made some bold claims. 

On October 23rd, Forbes’ David Axe reported that Moscow launched its initial attack on Avdiivka with what amounted to roughly three brigades of troops and equipment, which equaled about a couple thousand soldiers. 

Those forces allegedly attacked right into Ukrainian kill zones in the north and south of the city and took heavy losses. After two weeks of fighting the force was said to have lost over a hundred vehicles and thousands of men. 

A Ukrainian team of analysts from Frontelligence Insight reported: “Within the span of a week and a half, Russia suffered the loss of approximately a brigade-sized force.” But the casualties estimates have only gotten worse since that October 23rd report. 

On October 27th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a phone conversation that Russia had lost at least a brigade of soldiers in its attempts to capture Avdiivka according to a report from the president’s office. 

"The invaders made several attempts to surround Avdiivka, but each time, our soldiers stopped them and pushed them back, causing painful losses," Zelensky told Sunak on the phone according to a translation from The Kyiv Independent. 

Ukraine’s Minister of Defence Rustem Umierov had a similar phone conversation with his U.S. Secretary of Defense Llyod Austin one day after Zeleensky’s phone call and explained to Austin that Russia had lost roughly 4,000 soldiers in its Avdiivka offensive. 

Reuters reported that a Russian brigade can range in size from between 1,500 to 8,000 but added a little context as to why Russia would be so keen to take the town, noting it was surrounded by Russian-held territory to the north, south, and east.  

Avdiivka has been under attack since Russian-backed separatists opted to split from the Ukrainian state. The head of Avdiivka’s military administration Vitaliy Barabash has said that the new Russian attacks on the town are the largest since 2014. 

How many Russian soldiers have been lost in Avdiivka may not be known until long after the war but it is clear that Russia is taking heavy losses. The New York Times reported that just days into the battle it was shaping up to be one of Russia’s costliest.