Putin’s ability to launch an effective counterattack is fading

The Russian Armed Forces are too overstretched and won’t be able to launch any form of a counterattack according to an intelligence update from Britain’s Ministry of Defense. 

In an update on the ongoing war in Ukraine, intelligence analysts wrote that Russia has rarely maintained a large force capable of launching a significant offensive against Kyiv. 

However, the American-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War published its own assessment of Russian capabilities and predicted Moscow was planning to attack Ukraine with a strategic reserve that had been in the works since the early summer. 

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the development of a new reserve army at the end of June, and it is this force that could pose a danger to Ukrainian forces. 

"By the end of June, a reserve army will be formed, and in the near future, an army corps [is to be shaped]; they will receive more than 3,700 pieces of equipment." RIA Novosti quoted Shoigu as saying, according to a translation from Ukrianska Pravda. 

The Institute for the Study of War believes Moscow’s new 25th Combined Arms Army is the reserve army Minister Shoigu promised but the force is unlikely to be very effective. 

Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army is reported to consist of 30,000 contract troops and is broken up into two motorized rifle divisions with unknown tank and artillery battalions. 

Reports from Ukrainian intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov suggested the 25th Combined Arms Army wasn’t intended to be combat-ready until late October or November of 2023. 

However, the Institute for the Study of War was not able to confirm the information given by Budanov but added they had no reason to question his assessment of the situation. 

A recruitment ad posted by an administrator in the Russian area of Primorsky Krai noted soldiers of the new formation would be trained from the 1st of September through to the 1st of December and then deployed to either Zaporizhia or Kherson Oblast. 

The Institute for the Study of War also reported that Ukrainian Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department Oleksii Hromov said on July 5th that the 25th Combined Arms Army wouldn’t be combat-ready until at least 2024.

However, it appears Russia’s strategic reserve has already been sent to hotspots along the border between Donetsk and Luhansk according to Britain’s Ministry of Defense. 

The 25th Combined Arms Army began deploying into action in mid-September and was probably already moving into Ukraine in August, the defense intelligence update added. 

Two units from the reserve army—the 67th Motor Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Rifle Brigade—are reportedly fighting in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna. 

Britain’s defense intelligence noted that with elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army deployed piecemeal to reinforce Moscow’s overstretched lines in Ukraine, a “concerted new Russian offensive is less likely over the coming weeks.”

The Institute for the Study of War reported the 25th Combined Arms Army is “unlikely to be combat-effective at scale given its rushed deployment” and added the “formation is likely either severely understaffed and not near the paper strength of two divisions.”

The 25th Combined Arms Army is likely just as poorly trained as the initial Russian units mobilized in 2022 according to the U.S. think tank’s analysts, but they noted Moscow’s command likely viewed the strategic reserves deployment as a “tolerable risk.”