Partisan group claims Russia is preparing defenses around Mariupol

Russia has begun preparing defenses around the occupied city of Mariupol according to a new report from a pro-Ukrainian partisan group that has been operating behind enemy lines in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion. 

Members of the partisan guerilla movement Atesh reported on October 12th in a post on Telegram that Russian military forces had started transferring anti-tank obstacles known as dragon’s teeth throughout the city of Mariupol. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @atesh_ua

The report claimed that Russia was preparing a new defensive line outside of Mariupol to the northwest of the city and alluded that it was because Russia’s military leadership feared a future Ukrainian breakthrough in Donetsk. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @atesh_ua

The Telegram post commented: "The occupiers are so ‘sure’ that Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed that they are hastily building new defenses," according to a translation of the group’s comments from The New Voice of Ukraine.   

Photo Credit: Telegram @atesh_ua

However, Atesh wrote that the defensive lines being prepared around the city would not help Russian forces defend against Ukraine’s counter-offensive, adding that they would also be broken through by Kyiv’s counter-offensive. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @atesh_ua

The New Voice of Ukraine reported that Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the former Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, has previously noted that Russia was increasing its manpower in the area and stationing additional equipment in Mariupol as well. 

Photo Credit: YouTube @petpavan

Andriushchenko also reported that Russia was constructing a railroad connection to the city and provided photo evidence of the project on his Telegram channel which showed the likely route of the new railway link to Russia. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @andriyshTime

Unfortunately, all signs do signal that the Kremlin is working to connect Mariupol to the broader Russian world, and even though reports from Atesh regarding the fortification of the city have yet to be verified, they make sense. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @andriyshTime

Mariupol was one of the major Russian conquests in Ukraine and has become a symbol for the Kremlin just as much as it was for Ukraine. Fortifying the defenses of Mariupol in the face of a breakthrough would be a vital goal.  

However, any possible redeployment of troops or military equipment to Mariupol, as well as the area around the city, could be explained just as easily if Russia was preparing to turn Mariupol into a major supply hub for the war. 

Ukraine’s counter-offensive has made progress in the south of the country and it has put portions of Russia’s major supply routes within the firing range of Ukraine’s longer-range weapons. This is a plausible explanation for what’s happening in Mariupol. 

“In a sign of how seriously Russia takes the risk to its logistics infrastructure,” wrote the Wall Street Journal, “it has begun building new rail lines across territory it occupies in case Ukraine manages to damage the ones Moscow currently uses to deliver supplies.”

Reporter Daniel Michaels explained that the new rail line being constructed to Mariupol would link the city to Russia’s Black Sea ports and relieve some of the supply pressures the country has been dealing with since Kyiv began targeting Russian logistics. 

Whether or not this new railway would require the construction of a new defensive line around the city is still up for debate but any intelligent Russian commander would see the value in securing the city’s defenses in light of Ukraine’s war objectives

The New Voice of Ukraine noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised that the country’s armed forces would take back Mariupol from occupation, though it still remains to be seen if Kyiv can actually do it.  

Fierce fighting still persists in Ukraine’s east according to the Associated Press, but Kyiv has yet to capture the all-too-important city of Tokmak and Russia has launched its own offensive in Avdiivka to relieve some of the pressure from Ukraine's offensive.