Remember when Lindsey Graham warned Trump could lose the election if he didn't change his ways?

In August 2024, the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris was already extremely close and that might have been why Lindsey Graham took to the airwaves to warn that Trump could lose the election if he didn't shape up and start acting more presidential.

Graham, a South Carolina Senator, had been a long-time supporter of Donald Trump, but he issued a dire warning to the former president that he may not win reelection if he continued his strange strategy of personal attacks on Vice President Harris instead of focusing on his policy goals.  

Graham admitted that Trump the "provocateur" and "showman" wouldn't win the election in November while speaking with NBC News ‘Meet the Press’ moderator Kristen Welker in mid-August. It was a surprising admission from such a prominent Trump supporter. 

Welker asked Graham if he thought the former president should continue his line of personal attacks against Harris, to which Graham commented Trump could win the election but not with the showman version of his personality. 

The exchange began with Welcker asking Graham if he agreed with an assessment by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley that Trump’s campaign could only win if it focused and stopped trying to win using personal attacks against Harris.   

Graham responded by saying that he didn’t see Harris as a “lunatic” when he looked at the Vice President but instead said that he saw her as “the most liberal person to be nominated for president in the history of the United States,” the Guardian reported. 

The South Carolina Senator went on to say he thought the election needed to be fought on policy, noting that “a nightmare for Harris is to defend her policy choices,” before he moved on to explain that Trump could win the election in November. 

“President Trump can win this election. His policies are good for America, and if you have a policy debate for president, he wins,” Graham explained to Welcker. “Donald Trump the provocateur, the showman, may not win this election.”

“I’m looking for President Trump to show up in the last 80 days to define what he will do for our country, to fix broken borders, to lower inflation,” Graham continued. His remarks came after suggesting it was time for others to begin campaigning for Trump. 

NBC News reported Graham said it was time for Republicans like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to “get together and actually campaign for the guy, rather than just give advice.”

“Me and Nikki need to go to Georgia,” Graham said, adding: “We’re giving advice on TV to President Trump. He’s got a lot of critics," Graham explained. 

"He’s got a lot of advisers, but to Nikki Haley and DeSantis and Youngkin and all these great people we have, let’s get together and actually campaign for the guy,” Graham continued. 

Whether or not any of the three important Republican politicians listed by Graham would set out on the campaign trail in support of Trump was unknown at the time, but their backing in August would have helped the former president as he tried to navigate the new election environment. 

In July 2024, Haley voiced her support for Trump, and on September 8th she firmly stated that she was backing the former president according to a report from Axios.

On October 23rd, CBS News reported that Haily hit the campaign trail for Trump in a three-state tour across key battleground states in the final leg of the 2024 election.

Vice President Harris started to turn the tide of the election in August according to polls at the time, many of which showed she had etched out a minor lead over Trump as the election season entered its final months. 

On August 18th, Politico reported the latest ABC News/ Washington Post/ Ipsos national poll showed Harris was leading Trump by 6 points 51% to 45% with likely voters while a new poll from CBS News/ YouGov gave Harris a 3-point lead over the former president. 

“Harris has also seized a small lead in enough swing states to give her an Electoral College majority, a deeply worrying sign for Trump in the crucial last months of the campaign,” wrote Steven Shepherd of Politico. 

Polling at the time from the New York Times and Siena College showed that Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—all of which are key to victory for either presidential candidate. 

If Harris did win the four swing states where she is leading Trump, that would be enough for her to take the election, even if she lost the remaining swing states. However, Trump is still within “striking distance” according to Shepard. 

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As of October 24th, RealClearPolitics' polling average gave Harris a slight 0.2 point edge over Trump with 48.7% of the vote to Trump's 48.5%. The election is essential a tie and could be won either candidate...