Have Ukrainian forces crossed the Dnipro River into southern Kherson?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have crossed the Dnipro River and taken up positions in Russian-occupied Kherson according to a report from The Institute for the Study of War. 

On April 22nd, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian military bloggers had provided enough evidence to conclusively say that Ukrainian forces had established positions across the left bank of the Dnipro near the settlement of Oleshky. 

ISW also reported that the scale of Ukraine's positions across the Dnipro and their long-term intentions were not clear, but advancements inland had been made along the E97 highway according to the geolocation footage provided by Russian milbloggers. 

“This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonovsky Bridge,” the report added, which would be a significant development. 

ISW noted that the information from Russian military bloggers suggested Ukrainian forces have been in control of positions on the east bank of the Dnipro for weeks, which has allowed them to set up “stable supply lines” and conduct “sorties in the area.”

“This is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there,” the update read in reference to the reliability of the report. 

The available information also suggested Russia may not have total control of certain parts of the Dnipro River delta and the island's southwest of Kherson, news that would be in line with reports stating Russian forces were evacuating civilians from the area. 

“Russian troops are forcibly relocating people from occupied areas near the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson,” New York Times journalists Jeffrey Gettleman and Olha Kotiuzhanska reported based on unverified comments from Ukrainian officials. 

On April 24th, Politico noted that Russian forces carried out a massive attack on the city of Kherson in what one Ukrainian official called a reaction to “overblown news reports about Ukrainian troops establishing new positions on the left bank of Kherson region.” 

“Although 50 percent of the drones were destroyed, there were hits,” explained Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Army South Command. 

“More than 30 residential buildings and a school in one of the settlements were destroyed,” Humeniuk added. “There are dead and wounded civilians.” 

Russia launched six guided aerial bombs as well as 14 Lancet kamikaze drones and coordinated artillery fire on Ukrainian positions in Kherson according to Politico’s Veronika Melkozerova who was quoting data given out by Humeniuk in an interview.

When Humeniuk was asked to comment on the report from ISW about Ukraine’s push across the Dnipro and into southern Kherson, she asked for patience and later said that the report “preceded actual reality and ran ahead a little.”

“One must pay attention to the conclusions of analysts and understand that these are their assumptions,” Humeniuk said according to Melkozerova. “And one must trust the military, who really perform the same combat work.”

The Deputy Head of Kherson’s Regional Administration Yuriy Sobolevskiy called the operation a raid that was intended to disrupt Russia’s ability to shell the city of Kherson according to a Reuters report.

"Our military visits the left (eastern) bank very often, conducting raids. The Ukrainian armed forces are working, and working very effectively," Sobolevskiy told Ukrainian television according to a translation from Reuters’ Olena Harmash. 

"The results will come as they did on the right bank of the Kherson region when, thanks to a complex and long operation, they were able to liberate our territories with minimal losses for our military. The same thing happens now on the left bank." Sobolevskiy added. 

If the reports of Ukraine’s advance into southern Kherson are true, it could be the beginning of the long-awaited counteroffensive that President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military commanders have been promising for months. 

Now would be the perfect time for Ukraine to strike. Russian forces are arguably exhausted from a long winter of fighting that resulted in little territorial gain at the cost of massive casualties and destroyed equipment. 

The latest intelligence reports from Britain’s Ministry of Defence on April 25th suggested Russia is still losing on average 568 soldiers a day, and that’s after reducing their casualty rate by 30 percent following “exceptionally high” casualties between January and March 2023. 

“Russia’s losses have highly likely reduced as their attempted winter offensive has failed to achieve its objectives, and Russian forces are now focused on preparing for anticipated Ukrainian offensive operations,” Britain’s Ministry of Defense noted in their daily war update.