British general warns Ukraine should worry about Wagner attack from the north

The United Kingdom’s former Chief of General Staff has warned that the Wagner Group could attack Kyiv from Belarus. But how serious is this warning? And what are Ukrainian officials saying about the possibility of a renewed offensive in the north of the country?

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus after a stunning 48-hour mutiny that saw the mercenary captain just 200 miles outside of Moscow after calling on the nation to rise up in rebellion against the country’s political and military leadership. 

However, the news that the Wagner Group was for all intents and purposes taken off the board in Russia’s war against Ukraine might not be the right way to look at the situation that unfolded according to Lord Richard Dannatt, a former UK Chief of the General Staff. 

Lord Dannatt explained that while Prigozhin may have left the stage it wasn’t quite clear yet what would happen to his mercenary soldiers, and noted that the fact that Prigozhin actually went to Belarus should be a matter of “some concern” for Ukrainian authorities. 

“What we don't know, what we will discover in the next hours and days is, how many of his fighters have actually gone with him,” Lord Dannatt said according to Sky News. 

The former British Army chief worried that if Prigozhin went to Belarus and was allowed to keep an effective fighting force around him then it could lead to a situation where the mercenary captain could use his men to flank Ukrainian forces and push toward Kyiv. 

“Although it would appear that this matter is closed I think it is far from closed and the aftershocks will reverberate for quite some time,” Lord Dannatt continued. 

Lord Dannatt added that the Ukrainians needed to worry about an incursion from the north and noted that the country’s military leadership needed to ensure they had some maneuver units available if they needed to “repel a renewed attack from the direction of Belarus.”

"I think we've got to watch very carefully to see what Prigozhin and his Wagner troops do. And there is a possible threat that they might pose from Belarus to Kyiv. If I was the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, I would watch that front very carefully,” Dannatt added. 

While Lord Dannatt was certainly correct in asserting that the situation isn’t resolved yet and that the world will see some aftershocks of Prigozhin’s mutiny, his warning that Ukraine should be prepared for a renewed offensive doesn’t worry the country’s military. 

Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev is the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and recently stated that he and the country’s military leaders aren’t worried that the Wagner Group could be used to attack Ukraine in the north. 

"I want to assure everyone that the situation in the northern operating zone remains stable and controlled,” Naive said in a statement meant as a response to comments made by Lord Dannatt according to a translation from Ukrainska Pravda. 

“Our troops continue to build up their defensive capabilities,” Naiev added. “All services, from intelligence to engineering troops, are working in an enhanced mode.”

The lieutenant general added that there had been no sign of a buildup of military forces or equipment on the border and that the area was “reliably protected” 24/7. 

Naiev also explained that the enemy could try to cross the state border but it would only result in their deaths. “Our soldiers are ready to give a decent response to anyone who dares to cross the state border with weapons in their hands,” the commander continued.  

As of now, it is unlikely that the Wagner Group could attack Ukraine from the north but in a conflict as unpredictable as the war in Ukraine, every possibility should be considered and one’s enemy should never be underestimated.