A Russian pilot filmed himself moments after being shot down by Ukrainian forces

This is what the pilot said happened
What do we know about the video?
Shared by a pro-Russian blogger
“We didn’t have time to do anything”
Details about the incident are sparse
Others have tried to figure out the details
The possible jet that was shot down
The pilot ejected at a high altitude
We might know the location
Why is Chasiv Yar important?
Downed by a U.S. Patriot battery?
Evidence to back up the theory
Partially confirmed by bloggers
We have no official confirmation
Moscow has lost a lot of aircraft
Ukraine’s estimates are even higher
The real number is likely in the middle
Russia has lost 10% of its air fleet
This is what the pilot said happened

The increase of drones and mobile phones on the frontlines in Ukraine has led to a lot of unprecedented combat footage being posted online, but one of the interesting videos from the war was published in August 2024.

 

 

What do we know about the video?

Video footage of a Russian pilot filming himself in the seconds after being shot down by Ukrainian forces was published online and it provided a rare glimpse at the war being fought in the skies over Ukraine. 

Shared by a pro-Russian blogger

The video footage was originally shared by the pro-Russian military blogger Kirill Fyodorov on his Telegram channel 'War, History and Guns' according to Newsweek and it shows the slow descent of a Russian pilot as he made his way back to the ground following the downing of his fighter jet. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot from Telegram @warhistoryalconafter

“We didn’t have time to do anything”

“We were shot down. We were lucky that it was above the ground. We didn’t have time to do anything. We were flying high,” the Russian pilot explained in the video according to a translation of his comments from the military news website Militarnyi. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot from Telegram @warhistoryalconafter

Details about the incident are sparse

Fyodorov did not reveal the location of the pilot nor when the incident occurred, but the pro-Russian military blogger did report the pilot survived his downing and was preparing to continue flying combat missions against Ukrainian positions. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot from Telegram @warhistoryalconafter

Others have tried to figure out the details

Despite Fyodorov’s silence on the lack of information about the pilot's location and the date of the attack, it didn’t stop other individuals from trying to figure out what plane was downed and where the incident may have taken place. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot from Telegram @warhistoryalconafter

The possible jet that was shot down

Anton Gerashchenko is a former adviser to Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs as well as an avid commentator on the war. He suggested clues in the video revealed that the plane shot down could have been a Su-30, Su-35 fighter, or an Su-34 bomber. 

The pilot ejected at a high altitude

“As the ejection occurred above the clouds and at a considerable altitude, it could either be the pilot of a Su-30/Su-35 fighter or a Su-34 bomber,” Gerashchenko explained on X before adding that the pilot’s “calm behavior” meant it happened over Russian territory. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot from Telegram @warhistoryalconafter

We might know the location

Open-source intelligence analyst EjShahidenko calculated the approximate location of the pilot’s likely landing spot and published the information on their Telegram channel, noting that the Russian pilot probably landed near Chasiv Yar in Kherson. 

Photo Credit: Telegram @EjShahidenko

Why is Chasiv Yar important?

Chasiv Yar has been the location of an intense months-long battle that has seen Russia try to capture the key strategic town since April 2024. Reuters reported that on July 3rd the Russian Defense Ministry claimed its forces took control over a portion of the town. 

Downed by a U.S. Patriot battery?

Military noted the downed Russian pilot could have been the victim of a U.S. Patriot air defense system attack. The military news website reported that in December 2023, Ukrainian air defense forces claimed to have shot down three Su-34s at once. 

Evidence to back up the theory

“The Ukrainian Air Force command did not report the type of anti-aircraft system used,” Militarnyi noted, adding that the crash site was located 70 km or 43 mi away from the Ukrainian-controlled coast of the Dnipro River, supporting the idea that a U.S. Patriot air defense system may have been used. 

Partially confirmed by bloggers

“This information was partially confirmed by the Russian military-related Telegram channels, which reported the downing of at least one plane and the deaths of the pilots,” Militarnyi added, referring to the use of a Patriot system against the three Su-34 downings. 

We have no official confirmation

No confirmation from Ukraine or Russia has revealed the exact aircraft or location of the pilot downed in the video, but that likely won’t stop war watchers and open-source intelligence groups from making their best guesses about the incident.

Moscow has lost a lot of aircraft

The video of the ejection came at a time when Russia was losing a record number of air assets in the war. The open-source Dutch intelligence firm Oryx projected as of September 9th Moscow has suffered 127 verifiable aircraft losses, which include 112 destroyed aircraft and 15 damaged. 

Ukraine’s estimates are even higher

The Ukrainian General Staff has estimated that Russia has suffered much higher losses of its aircraft, noting in its September 9th update on Russian equipment losses that Russia has suffered at least 368 aircraft losses since the invasion began in February 2022. 

The real number is likely in the middle

The true number of Russian aircraft lost in the war is likely somewhere in the middle of Oryx's and Ukraine's claims since Oryx points out on its website that Moscow’s losses are likely higher due to the limiting nature of its verification process, which isn’t good news for the Kremlin. 

Russia has lost 10% of its air fleet

In April 2024, the Head of the United States European Command, General Christopher Cavoli, told U.S. lawmakers that Russia had lost roughly 10% of its air fleet in the war, which is a figure that has almost certainly only risen higher over the several few months.  

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