Russia just hit another terrible milestone in the war

Moscow passed a worrying new casualty milestone according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers have been lost since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. But how accurate are these numbers?

On April 10th, The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Moscow lost 830 more soldiers over the previous day, a figure which pushed its losses in the war to more than 450,000 since Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine. 

However, it’s always important to remember that casualty statistics coming from Ukraine should be taken with a grain of salt since Kyiv is one of the belligerents in the war. But these statistics may be close to the truth. 

Looking at the conclusions of third-party analysts can provide good insight into how bad Russian losses have been since the invasion began and one of the best sources comes from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence. 

In a March 3rd, 2024, update on the war, the UK Defence Ministry reported the average Russian daily casualty figure hit its highest since the war began at 983 killed and injured a day, a rate that resulted from Russian tactics. 

“The increase in the daily average almost certainly reflects Russia's commitment to mass and attritional warfare,” a defense ministry analyst explained, adding that the losses had resulted in increased pressure across the front. 

Defense Ministry analysts also reported that it was likely that the Kremlin had lost about 355,000 soldiers killed or wounded since the war began, a number that was only off by a few tens of thousands less than estimates from Kyiv. 

On March 3rd, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Moscow had suffered a total of 416,800 personnel losses since the conflict began, adding 1,160 soldiers to the list from the previous day's fighting all across Ukraine’s frontlines. 

The UK Ministry of Defence reported on April 7th that the Russian daily casualty count dipped by 74 soldiers per day to an average of 913. Analysts explained that the drop in losses was likely because of reduced attacks from Russia.

“The decrease in losses corresponds with fewer reported attacks over the past month. The reduction in Russian offensive operations highly likely reflects a series of factors,” the defense ministry explained. So what were the factors?

A period of rest and recuperation following the capture of Avdiivka in February coupled with a reduction in death notices from Russia during the presidential election were what played the biggest role in Moscow’s reduced troop losses. 

“Casualty counts typically skyrocket during drawn-out battles, like during the Russian attacks on the Donetsk city of Bakhmut in early 2023 and when Russia launched its assault on the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka,” Newsweek’s Ellie Cook wrote. 

The battle to capture Avdiivka was a very costly fight for Russia according to casualty statistics revealed by Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian group tasked with defending Avdiivka. 

“In the Avdiivka sector the Ukrainian defenders with their courage, resistance, and heroism inflicted huge losses on the enemy and destroyed a significant reserve of Russian occupiers,” Tarnavskyi wrote on Telegram, Ukrainiform reported. 

According to Tarnavskyi’s count, the Kremlin lost as many as 47,186 soldiers killed or wounded during the battle for Avdiivka, as well as 364 tanks, 248 artillery systems, 748 armored combat vehicles, and 5 aircraft. 

How Russian losses will continue to progress is still a mystery. Another offensive could bring heavy casualties but Ukraine's relative lack of ammunition could give Moscow an advantage as it continues to prosecute its war in Ukraine.