The 2024 Election is a toss-up with less than a week to go

There is less than a week to go before voters in the United States will head to the polls and choose the next President. But, will it be Vice President Kamala Harris or will they pick Donald Trump? Let’s take a look at what the polls can tell us. 

Nearly every major pollster is predicting a toss-up, which means that either of the candidates could win. Some polls favor Harris to win while others polls are showing a surge for Trump late in the race that could be enough to push him to victory. 

One of the most respected pollsters is the founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver, and he recently wrote in a New York Times opinion piece published on October 23rd that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast” for the presidential election at that time. 

Silver explained that he had a gut feeling Trump would win the Electoral College, but he also made it clear that the election really was a toss-up between Harris and Trump that could be swayed either way before election day. 

“My gut says Donald Trump [will win]. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats. But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine,” Silver explained. 

“Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris,” Silver added. 

It is clear from recent polling that many other pollsters are also predicting that the race will be a toss-up. For example, RealClearPolitics’ aggregate poll average currently has Trump ahead of Harris as of October 29th, but not by much. 

Trump is leading with 48.5% of the vote to the Vice President’s 48.1%. That’s only a +4 point lead. However, looking back at the last two presidential elections reveals a very concerning problem. Joe Biden and Clinton were both far ahead of Trump at this time. 

Biden was leading Trump at this same time four years ago in 2020 by +7.9 points while Clinton was leading by +4.6 points. However, previous percentage point leads from two elections may not be indicative of who will be voted into office in 2024. 

According to Newsweek’s round-up of recent polls, YouGov’s polling from October 23rd to the 25th has Harris ahead of Trump nationally by 1 point and Emerson College’s poll from October 25th to the 27th Trump and Harris tied at 49%. 

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the country’s national polls Harris up by +1.3 points with 48.1% of the vote to Trump’s 46.8%. So it is fairly clear that the election race really is a toss-up just one week before voters will flock to the polls. 

The more interesting polls to follow, however, are those tracking who is doing better in each of the seven major swing states—especially Pennsylvania, which is likely to be the state that decides the 2024 Election. 

Newsweek reported that FiveThirtyEight has Trump and Harris tied in four of the seven swing states, which includes Pennsylvania. 

“The pair are both on 47.8 percent in Wisconsin, while Trump holds a slight lead in Pennsylvania (plus 0.3 point) and Nevada (0.2 point). Harris is ahead in Michigan (0.5 point),” Newsweek's Even Palmer wrote. 

Trump is leading Harris in North Carolina by +1.3 points, and he has taken the slightly larger lead in Georgia, where he has a 1.6-point lead over Harris, and Arizona, where the former president leads the Vice President by 1.9 points. 

Again, it's important to point out that the polls aren’t the be-all or end-all of the election and it is still very possible Harris will beat Trump in the seven key swing states. Only time will tell which of the two candidates will win this extremely close election. 

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