Why Zelensky doesn't think Putin will use nuclear weapons on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly issued threats concerning the potential use of nuclear weapons and the prospect of nuclear war in relation to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that he commanded.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky doesn't think Putin is likely to use his worst weapons in the field and revealed why in September 2024 during an interview with an American news outlet.

 Zelensky provided his keen insights on the recent nuclear threats made by Vladimir Putin. He suggested Putin was too afraid to lose his own life to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. 

“He could use nuclear weapons against any country at any time, or perhaps not. I’m not certain. I’m sharing my thoughts with you, but fortunately, I’m not Putin,” Zelensky stated about the possibility of Moscow using a nuclear device in Ukraine during a Fox News interview.

According to United24, Zelensky also raised his concerns about Putin’s erratic behavior before saying Putin was “not always adequate, as no reasonable person would invade Ukraine and commit the actions he has.” 

Zelensky added that while Putin may threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Putin ultimately “enjoys his life and the control he exerts over others."

"For that reason, I think he would hesitate to use nuclear weapons," the Ukrainian President added. However, is Zelesnky's assessment accurate? 

Whether or not Zelensky’s perception of Putin’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is correct is still unclear. Putin has yet to use a nuclear weapon in the war, but is clear is Putin may have been trying to reestablish Russia’s redlines with the West with his recent comments and threats about nuclear war. 

Western support for Ukraine has gradually increased over the years to the point where Kyiv is receiving extremely advanced weapons from its partners in the West, and getting their permission to use those weapons in increasingly damaging ways. 

In what could have been a response to growing Western assistance and the invasion of the Kursk region of Russia, Putin outlined a new policy change Moscow was planning to make concerning Russia’s nuclear weapons policy. 

On September 25th, Putin explained during a meeting of the Russian Security Council that a new Russian nuclear doctrine would consider an attack by a non-nuclear state being backed by a nuclear state as a joint attack according to BBC News. 

"It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation," Putin explained. 

Putin also warned that Moscow would consider using nuclear weapons when and if it detected the beginning of a massive launch of aircraft, missiles, or drones against its territory and they posed a “critical threat” to the country.   

BBC News reported Putin’s comments “could be construed as a threat to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine." 

Analysts at the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War noted in the organization's September 25th update on the war in Ukraine that Putin’s comments were likely an attempt to “exert further control over Western decision-making.”

Putin may have been hoping his new nuclear threat would “discourage the West from allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike military objects in Russia,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This makes a lot of sense. 

The Russian President’s remarks came as the United Kingdom and the United States were, and still are, considering allowing Kyiv to use British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles on targets inside of Russia, which would make a stark change in U.S. policy. 

“Putin likely intends for the hyper-specificity of his nuclear threats to breathe new life into the Kremlin's tired nuclear saber-rattling information operation and generate a new wave of panic among Western policymakers,” the ISW war update noted. 

“Kremlin officials routinely invoke thinly veiled threats of nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West during key moments in Western political debates regarding further military assistance to Ukraine… to induce fear among decision-makers” the ISW added. 

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