This is how many artillery shells Ukraine is using to defeat Russia

More shells could win the war
Appealing for help
Ukraine's expenditure rate
The request for help exceeds EU capacity
Artillery is crucial for Ukraine's defense
Russia is firing way more shells
Ukraine could be winning if they weren't limited by shells
Ukraine needs at least 60 percent of its ammo set
356,000 shells should do the trick
Can Josep Borell help?
Money for shell donations
Help could be coming faster
A problem of capacity, not money
How many shells can Europe produce?
That 650,000 includes other types of shells, too
Russia is also suffering from a shortage as well
But Russia can reduce its rate of fire
Russian rounds fired versus Ukrainian rounds fired
More shells could win the war

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are using tens of thousands of artillery shells a month to smash Russia’s offensive in the east according to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense. 

Appealing for help

In a letter appealing to the European Union for more supplies, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Ukrainian forces were firing upwards of 110,000 shells a month.

Ukraine's expenditure rate

“On average Ukraine was firing 110,000 155mm-caliber shells a month, he says — a quarter of the amount used by Russia," wrote Financial Times’ Andy Bounds—who obtained a copy of Reznikov's letter to leaders of the European Union’s 27 member states. 

The request for help exceeds EU capacity

“The request far exceeds the help the EU is discussing sending, underlining the size of the task facing Kyiv as its war with Russia enters a second year,” Bounds added.

Artillery is crucial for Ukraine's defense

Reznikov wrote that Ukraine’s artillery was playing a “crucial role in eliminating the enemy’s military power” and stressed the importance of his country’s supply limitations. 

Russia is firing way more shells

Russia is firing approximately five times more artillery shells according to Reznikov, a situation that makes Ukraine’s defense, and eventual counter-offensive, far more difficult.

Ukraine could be winning if they weren't limited by shells

“If we were not limited by the amount of available artillery shells, we could use the full ammunition set, which is 594,000 shells per month,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister wrote. 

Ukraine needs at least 60 percent of its ammo set

“According to our estimates, for the successful execution of battlefield tasks, the minimum need is at least 60 percent of the full ammunition set,” Reznikov added. 

356,000 shells should do the trick

If Ukraine had 60 percent of its full ammunition set then that would mean its artillery forces could fire upwards of “356,400 shells per month” according to Reznikov.

Can Josep Borell help?

Ukraine’s Defense Minister also sent a letter to the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borell, asking for help. 

Money for shell donations

Borell has put a plan in motion to spend one billion euros to reimburse member countries who supply Ukraine with badly needed artillery shells according to Andy Bound. But some analysts say the problem isn't about the money.

Help could be coming faster

“It’s not coming fast enough, but it’s coming,” French defense analyst François Heisbourg told the New York Times’ Steve Erlanger. 

A problem of capacity, not money

“It isn’t a question of resources or money. The €1 billion is not the problem, it’s to get those factories up and running, and that takes time,” Heisbourg added. 

How many shells can Europe produce?

Erlanger spoke with one anonymous European official who revealed that there were only 12 companies in 10 European Union countries that could produce the type of shells Ukraine needs, and they only produce a combined 650,000 a year. 

That 650,000 includes other types of shells, too

That 650,000 number also includes “other types of ammunition that are in short supply,” Erlanger wrote, “ including 120-millimeter rounds needed for German Leopard 2 tanks and 105-millimeter rounds needed for the older Leopard 1 tank.”

Russia is also suffering from a shortage as well

Luckily, Ukrainian forces aren’t the only ones suffering from an artillery shortage. Erlanger noted that Russia was also having problems supplying its soldiers with shells. 

But Russia can reduce its rate of fire

"Russia, too, is facing ammunition shortages, and its munitions factories are working at speed. But it has also reduced the number of shells it is firing,” Erlanger wrote. 

Russian rounds fired versus Ukrainian rounds fired

“Last summer in the Donbas, the Russians were firing 40,000 to 50,000 artillery rounds per day, while the Ukrainians were firing 6,000 to 7,000 a day,” Erlanger continued, a worrying sign as the war enters the spring fighting season. 

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