Russia strike to Ukraine grain port sparks fears of another food crisis

A “revenge strike”
Odesa: Ukranian navy headquarters
26,000 tonns of corn
A broken deal
Millions of tons of grain stuck in Ukraine
A blow to people in need
Famine in the Middle East and Africa
Could exports continue without Russia’s participation?
The risks of shipping without Russia agreeing
A warning
Russia wants to export too
Leverage over food supplies
Zelensky calls to continue without Russia
Can they persuade Russia to return to the deal?
Its up to insurance companies
The implications of going against Russia
A “revenge strike”

Russia's Defence Ministry said on July 18th it had hit military targets in two Ukrainian port cities as "a mass revenge strike" in response to an attack on the Crimean bridge the previous day which it blamed on Kyiv, Reuters reported.

Odesa: Ukranian navy headquarters

The ministry said it had struck Odesa, where the Ukrainian navy has its headquarters, and where last summer, ships carrying grain and other agricultural products sailed from, heading to Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

26,000 tonns of corn

After weeks of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, led by Turkey and the United Nations, The Sierra Leone-flagged ship Razoni, carrying 26,000 tonns of corn set sail in August 2022.

Image: Pierre Bamin/Unsplash

A broken deal

But now, one day before the strike, Russia withdrew from the one year-old grain export deal, a move the United Nations said risked creating hunger around the world.

Millions of tons of grain stuck in Ukraine

Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain producers, and millions of tonns of grain stuck in Ukraine due to Russian blockades last year, led to shortages and higher food prices in other countries.

A blow to people in need

"Today's decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on July 17th.

Famine in the Middle East and Africa

The previous blockade caused a worldwide grain shortage and price rises, which pushed some countries that are reliant on grain imports, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, towards famine.

Could exports continue without Russia’s participation?

In theory, shipping could resume without Russian participation, however, the Kremlin openly said ships entering the area without its guarantees would be in danger.

The risks of shipping without Russia agreeing

"We're talking about an area that's close to a war zone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to Reuters. "Without the appropriate security guarantees, certain risks arise there.”

A warning

“So if something is formalised without Russia, these risks should be taken into account,” Peskov warned.

Russia wants to export too

According to Reuters, Russia said it could return to the grain deal, but only if its demands are met for rules to be eased on its own exports of food and fertiliser.

Leverage over food supplies

However, Western countries call that an attempt to use leverage over food supplies to force a weakening in financial sanctions, which already allows Russia to sell food.

Zelensky calls to continue without Russia

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, has called for the grain deal to continue without Russia, effectively seeking Turkey's backing to negate the Russian blockade.

Can they persuade Russia to return to the deal?

But Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is the deal's sponsor, says he thinks Moscow can be persuaded to return.

Its up to insurance companies

Any attempt to reopen Ukrainian grain shipments without Russia's participation, however, would depend on insurance companies agreeing to provide coverage.

The implications of going against Russia

Nevertheless, industry sources told Reuters they are considering the implications of continuing the shipping without Russia in the deal.

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