Remember when leaked documents revealed the secrets of Russian nuclear doctrine?

In February 2024, leaked documents containing details about Russian nuclear doctrine were revealed by The Telegraph and gave the world a view behind the curtain of the Kremlin's nuclear secrecy.

While the leaked documents were older, they covered a range of important issues like the minimum criteria the Kremlin would need before deciding to use a tactical nuclear weapon.

The leaked documents included a group of twenty-nine classified military files that were created between 2008 and 2014 according to Financial Times, which reviewed the files and reported on the secrets that were contained within. 

Included in the files were war gaming scenarios and presentations for naval officers, as well as discussions regarding when nuclear weapons should be used against an enemy. Several very worrying possible scenarios were outlined. 

For example, Russia could choose to launch a nuclear response from something as general as an enemy incursion into its territory to something a lot more specific, like the destruction of 20% of the country’s strategic ballistic missile submarines. 

Flies that made up part of a presentation included in the documents noted the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons would be the result of a combination of factors that “would irrevocably lead to their failure to stop major enemy aggression,” the Financial Times quoted. 

Other possible scenarios that could result in a nuclear response from Moscow included the destruction of 30% of the country’s attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a concurrent strike on coastal command centers. 

The documents also revealed that the Kremlin would be willing to use its tactical nuclear arsenal as a means to accomplish goals like containing or stopping states from using aggression, or as a means to prevent a state from escalating a conflict. 

Russian doctrine in the documents also outlined that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would be allowed to prevent Russia from losing a battle or territory or in the case the weapon would make the Russian Navy “more effective” according to Financial Times. 

Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Alexander Gabuev told the Financial Times that the leaks were “the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain.” Gabuev also said that the leaks were concerning. 

“They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means,” Gabuev added. But how relevant are documents that are now over a decade old?

The Financial Times reported that while the documents may have been old, they still provided a lot of relevant information when it came to understanding Russian nuclear doctrine in 2024 according to the experts the news outlet spoke with. 

Jack Watling of the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute explained to the Financial Times that the leaked documents were meant to help train soldiers for the situations they might face rather than for the use of nuclear weapons. 

“At this level, the requirement is for units to maintain — over the course of a conflict — the credible option for policymakers to employ nuclear weapons,” Watling said. “This would be a political decision.”

One of the most interesting portions of the leaked documents was the files that outlined a hypothetical attack on Russia by its neighbor China as part of a war game scenario that would ultimately result in a tactical nuclear response if China advanced into Russia with second-wave forces. 

“The order has been given by the commander-in-chief . . . to use nuclear weapons . . . in the event the enemy deploys second-echelon units and the South threatens to attack further in the direction of the main strike,” the document stated according to Financial Times. 

Financial Times noted that only the Russian President has the authority to launch a nuclear first strike and added that Vladimir Putin has previously outlined two thresholds for the use of a nuclear weapon. 

The two thresholds included retaliation against an enemy that fired nuclear weapons at Russia first and the use of a nuclear weapon if the Russian state was under threat, even if that threat only came from the use of conventional weapons. 

In September 2024, Putin said during a meeting with the Russian Security Council that the Kremlin was considering changing its nuclear doctrine to add new provisions that would allow for the use of a nuclear strike under a scenario in which Russia was attacked by a non-nuclear state.

"It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation," Putin said according to a translation of his comments from Reuters.

"The conditions for Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly fixed," Putin added. The Russian President also noted that the change could see Russia launch a nuclear weapon if it detects any massive attack, whether it be enemy drones, aviation, or ballistic missiles.