Historian Allan Lichtman’s Presidential prediction: will he be right again?

Historian Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting the outcomes of 9 out of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, has made his prediction for tomorrow's election. Whether one supports or opposes his views, his track record speaks volumes about his forecasting accuracy.

Obviously, in 2024, the historian from America University has also launched his prediction and, in this case, Lichtman believes the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump on November 5.

In an interview with USA Today Lichtman said, "We are going to have a new and pathbreaking American president, Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States, at least cracking, if not shattering the glass ceiling..."

Lichtman continued, "...and she'll become the first American president of mixed African and East Asian descent, foreshadowing where our country is going. We are rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me are on the decline."

Through his YouTube channel, Allan Lichtman has explained the formula he uses to make his predictions, a curious system that he himself calls electoral 'keys' that consist of 13 statements about the party that is in the White House before the elections.

Photo: Youtube - Allan Lichtman

If the statement is true, the candidate of the party in power gets one point. If it is false, the opposition candidate and contender for the Oval Office gets one point. After adding up the results, Allan Lichtman arrives at his now well-known prediction.

"The keys to the White House are an alternative to pundits which have no scientific merit, while polls are snapshots not predictors," he says on his YouTube channel.

According to Allan Lichtman himself, his system measures "the strength  and performance of the party holding the White House," which he says is more reliable than polls or the opinions of experts. In other words, good government over four years weighs more than a candidate's promises.

But what are those 13 keys? As compiled by Wikipedia, these are the 13 keys that determine the winner: 1 -Party Mandate:  following the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Photo: X - Allan Lichtman

2 - No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3 -Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5 - Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6 - Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7 - Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8 - No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9 - No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10 - No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11 - Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12 - Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13 - Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

After reviewing his 13 key questions, Allan Lichtman determined that Kamala Harris has a definitive win in her future with 9 out of 13 keys being true.

Curiously, the polls are not so clear about the situation, and the winners alternate with each passing day in a race for the White House that will be fought until the last vote.

By the way, the only prediction that Allan Lichtman has gotten wrong in 40 years was in the 2000 US presidential election, which George W. Bush won against Al Gore. Beyond that, he was right every other time. In two weeks we will see if Lichtman is right once again.

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