Can Ukraine’s drones make up for the weapons and ammo it’s not getting?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have revolutionized the modern battlefield with the use of drone warfare. But will these crucial weapons systems be the key to victory for Ukraine against Russia? It's a question that has only one answer.

Drones have been one of the most important tools Ukraine has used to offset the major imbalance of military power between itself and Russia. But these weapons systems are not enough according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

"We produce a lot of drones, but they are not an alternative to any kind of weapon," the Ukrainian President said during an interview with German reporter Paul Ronzheimer on April 2nd according to a translation by Business Insider.  

Zelesnky explained that Ukraine has proven itself with drones and increased production has helped the country’s armed forces a lot. But he noted drones were not “a substitute for long-range weapons, missiles, long-range artillery."

Drones certainly have been one of the key defining innovations of the war since Russia launched its invasion. These weapons systems have been engineered to destroy tanks on the battlefield and strike deep inside Russian territory. 

Sea surface drones have arguably been the defining factor that has led to Kyiv’s major successes on the Black Sea, a fact that has been pointed out by countless war pundits and news agencies as that front has changed over time. 

In March 2024, the Associated Press reported it was the smart use of remote-controlled and explosive-laden drone boats that “allowed Ukraine to tip the scales of naval warfare in its favor despite Russia’s massive superiority in firepower.”

However, the fight on land has been a lot more nuanced. First person view drones have taken over the battlefield as reconnaissance tools and as aerial explosives. But they are not enough to counterbalance what Russia can bring to bear. 

On April 9th, Samuel Bendett of Virginia-based think tank the Center for Naval Analyses told Foreign Policy that the first-person view drones being used on the battlefield are not perfect. They have one big issue that makes them problematic. 

Bendett pointed out that first person view drones have a short range so even if Ukraine does lack adequate artillery, it can’t replace its artillery needs with drones since they can only be used at distances of up to 20 kilometers or 6 miles. 

Foreign Policy added that Kyiv’s drones have cheap cameras which make them difficult to use in bad weather and at night. They also often carry improvised munitions that can be denoted in mid-flight. Moreover, their success rate may be mixed. 

Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program, and he explained the overall success rate of Ukraine’s drones is less than 50% percent, and the drones that do get through likely aren’t destroying their target. 

“You usually don’t kill a tank the first few times,” Lee said. “It can take 10 or more [FPV drones] to kill a tank.” However, the ultimate problem that Ukraine faces is the number of soldiers Russia can bring to bear against the Ukrainians, something that adequate artillery ammunition could assist in handling and something a drone cannot replace. 

First person view drones can’t match the high rate of fire or explosive effects of artillery ammunition according to Foreign Policy. Moreover, electronic warfare has no effect on artillery shells. “It’s just a bombshell that’s flying through the air,” Foreign Policy noted. 

Another important aspect of the war that drones cannot influence is the ongoing aerial missile and kamikaze drone attacks, a problem that Zelensky made clear in comments he made during an April 2nd interview with German journalist Paul Ronzheimer.

"If we don't have air-defense systems and the appropriate long-range weapons to match Putin, he will destroy our country," Zelenskyy said Tuesday. "This is what this war will look like: complete destruction, destruction of border areas, cities, villages, and so on."

While drones have been an important tool that has helped Ukraine win victories both on land and sea, their long-range, sea surface, and first person view drones aren’t enough to replace the crucial weapons systems Kyiv needs from its Western allies.