Are Russian armored vehicle losses impacting Moscow on the battlefield?

Russia has suffered major losses of troops and equipment since Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, losses among Moscow's armored vehicles may be hindering its frontline operations. 

According to a recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War published in the think tank’s December 23rd update on the war, Russian armored vehicle losses might be hindering the Kremlin from making faster battlefield gains. 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that losses sustained in 2024, particularly among units and formations that have been fighting throughout most of the year, might be impacting Moscow’s “rate of advance in certain sectors.”

Intelligence gathered by a social media source utilizing satellite imagery shared updated numbers on their assessment regarding Russian tank and armored vehicle losses according based on what's left in Russia storage facilities. 

The source claimed that Russia has lost 47% of its pre-war tank stocks, as well as 52% of the Kremlin’s infantry fighting vehicles and 45% of its pre-invasion armored personnel carriers. However, the claims are far worse than they seem. 

According to the social media source’s assessment, Moscow might have used all of the country’s pre-war T-90 tanks and the majority of its pre-war T-80 tanks. Most of Russia’s T-72, T-62/64, and T-54/55 tank stocks are still in storage, however. 

“The social media source noted that Russian forces will not be able to field these older tanks as the tanks have likely been degraded by weather and time,” the ISW reported about Russia’s remaining older tank stocks. 

ISW analysts couldn’t verify the social media source's information or claims and noted that it would be difficult to judge the condition of what Russia has available in its storage bases solely based on satellite imagery. However, Russian armored losses have still been a problem for Moscow. 

“Armored vehicle limitations among Russian forces likely differ among sectors of the frontline,” the ISW explained, suggesting that the tempo of operations in the Siversk and Kupyansk sectors have been relatively lower over the last few months.

The Siversk and Kupyansk sectors aren't seeing the same intensity as the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove sectors, which may mean Russia's Siversk and Kupyansk units have more armored vehicles available, but the ISW also noted it could mean that Russia doesn't have the equipment to reequip its forces in those sectors. 

“The Russian military may, however, be struggling to reequip Russian frontline units and formations because the Russian military command does not want to withdraw Russian units for rest and reconstitution and risk further slowing Russian advances in high-priority frontline sectors,” the ISW report added. 

Whether or not Russian armored losses are impacting Moscow’s war effort and slowing Russia’s rate of advance on certain fronts is difficult to confirm. However, it is clear that Putin's military has lost a significant amount of armored vehicles. 

According to the Dutch open-source intelligence group Oryx, which tracks Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses using only verifiable photos or videos, as of December 25th Russia has lost a total of 11,349 armored combat vehicles (which includes tanks and all forms of armored fighting vehicles) since invading Ukraine. 

However, Oryx notes on its website that its “list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded."

On December 25th, the Ukrainian General Staff reported in its daily update on Russian losses that Moscow’s total armored personnel vehicle losses alone were approaching 20,000, noting that since February 24th, 2022, Russia has lost 19,923 armored vehicles and 9,682 tanks.

It is likely the true number of Russian armored combat vehicle losses is somewhere between the claims made by Oryx and the Ukrainian General Staff. Whether or not those losses are affecting Russian forces on the frontline is something only Moscow may know at this point in the conflict. 

“The loss of armored vehicles for Russia is significant because it may impact Moscow's ability to continue fighting in the war with Ukraine,” Newsweek’s Maya Mehrara reported before adding the problem was likely being compounded by Russia’s growing troop losses.