Ukraine wants to destroy the Crimean Bridge but how could they do it?

The Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea is one of the most essential infrastructure assets in the Russian war against Ukraine and has been the target of several strikes over the last twenty months of the conflict. But is the bridge in danger?

Ukrainian officials and military commanders have claimed on several occasions that the Crimean Bridge is a target Kyiv is hoping to destroy. According to the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, the Crimean Bridge’s days were numbered. 

"I don't think we have to wait long — this year for sure," Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa revealed about when the Crimean Bridge would be destroyed, according to a translation from The New Voice of Ukraine of his February 2024 remarks. 

Vice Admiral Neizhpapa isn’t the only Ukrainian military official who has alluded that the Crimean Bridge is a target Ukraine is planning to pursue. Head of The Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov made similar comments recently. 

Budanov wrote that “new surprises” awaited Ukraine's enemies and added he would not recommend civilians to use the so-called Crimean Bridge' ' in a February 25th Telegram post. Ukrainian intelligence has also revealed a possible date. 

Unnamed senior officials of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence told The Guardian in April the destruction of the Crimean Bridge was “inevitable” and that the attack on the bridge was likely to happen within the following few months. 

“We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official explained before adding that Budanov already had most of what he needed to carry out the strike. However, just because Kyiv wants to destroy the Crimean Bridge doesn't mean it's possible. 

The 12-mile stretch of bridge that connects Russia to Crimea via the Kerch Strait was a target of two previous attacks according to Newsweek. Both attacks critically damaged the bridge but not enough to knock it out of commission for long. 

A drone attack in July 2023 saw a roadway section of the bridge used to move supplies damaged but later repeated while an attack in October 2022 resulted in several sections of railway running parallel to the bridge to fall into the water below. 

How Ukraine would attack the Crimean Bridge in a way that would permanently damage the structure isn’t known according to The Guardian, which noted that there are “serious doubts” about whether Ukrainian military intelligence could do it. 

However, there are some hints about the weapons Ukraine intends to use to destroy the Crimean Bridge. In December 2023, former NATO Commander Ben Hodges wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs with other experts that Western missiles might be the key. 

“Destroying the bridge will be a difficult task. It has been expertly constructed to bear heavy traffic. Its size, strength, and durability are such that it has withstood repeated Ukrainian attacks,” Hodges and his coauthors explained. 

“For Kyiv to succeed in permanently disabling or destroying the bridge, Ukraine’s Western allies must provide far larger numbers of powerful precision-guided missiles. This will be a matter of both quantity and quality,” Hodges and his coauthors added. 

A strike that could make the Crimean Bridge permanently inoperable would require what Hodges and his fellow experts called a “massive salvo of missiles” that could overwhelm Russian air defense and hit vulnerabilities on the bridge simultaneously and repeatedly. 

In March, leaked audio from a conversation between German military officers discussed handing over its long-range Taurus cruise missile to be used in a possible attack on the Crimean Bridge according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, so it is possible. 

Why Ukraine would want to destroy the Crimean Bridge is an important question and it is related to the bridge's strategic importance, “it's the shortest land route to Crimea, with Russia's military using it to transport large amounts of equipment and soldiers to Ukraine,” Business Insider explained.