Meet the Baltic Defense Line: Will it Stop a Future Russian Invasion?

Relations between Russia and NATO have reached a new all-time low due to Vladimir Putin's of Ukraine. The situation has concerned some Russian border countries so much that they're building a new defense line between their countries and Russia.

Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are building massive new fortifications along their borders with both Russia and Belarus in order to create a common defense line against possible future invasions by Moscow or its allies in Minsk. But will it be strong enough to stop Moscow?

The Baltic Defense Line, as the project has come to be known, was part of an important agreement struck between three nations that make up the main Baltic region, and their aim is to reinforce NATO’s eastern border with Russia and make it a tougher nut to crack. 

Photo Credit: Twitter @MoD_Estonia

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds noted in a statement about the agreement, which was revealed during a joint meeting in January 2024, that he and the defense ministers of Estonia and Lithuania approved the new defensive fortifications to protect each nation at a broader level. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Saeima, CC BY-SA 2.0

“From a military perspective, this initiative will significantly boost our capability to protect our borders at the national level,” Sprūds explained according to Latvia's Defense Ministry. “We will be able to slow down and block the movement of potential aggressors more efficiently.”

The project is a joint effort between all three of the Baltic states but it was also adopted to help reinforce NATO’s eastern border with Russia at a time when relations had gotten worse and the possibility of an attack on the Baltic countries by Russia was being openly discussed. 

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in January 2024 that Moscow could launch an attack against NATO within five to eight years according to Politico. But Pistorius wasn't the only Western official warning about a potential attack. 

On February 9th, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told the media that a Russian attack against NATO in the next three to five “to test Article 5 and NATO's solidarity” could not be ruled out according to a Reuters report. 

The Baltic states would likely be the first target of any future Russian attack since all three nations share a direct border with Russia and its close ally Belarus. This may be why Estonian intelligence has previously warned that war with Russia could happen within the decade. 

"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation,” the Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Kaupo Rosin told reporters in February 2022 during a press conference following the release of Estonia's annual security risks report according to Newsweek. 

Photo Credit: Twitter @kaupo_rosin

“The Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade," Rosin added. 

With many Western officials warning about a possible future conflict with Russia, it makes sense that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania got together in early 2024 and announced their joint plans to build a brand new line of formidable transnational defensive fortifications.

Estonia is planning to construct at least 600 bunkers, which will cost the country roughly $65 million according to the country’s state broadcaster ERR News. However, this new defensive line will consist of much more than just defensive bunkers. 

Photo Credit: Estonian Defence Ministry

The Times of London reported the core element will include 1000 bunkers but also new ammunition stores and support points plus measures designed to hold up any advance by an invading army trying to quickly conquer the nations. 

Photo Credit: Estonian Defence Ministry

Anti-tank mines, ditches, concertina wire, and dragon teeth will be placed all across the defensive border area to slow down military vehicles. “It includes all necessary means to fight against the enemy,” said Estonian Lieutenant Colonel Kaido Tiitus.

“This is protection, this is positions, this is fire against the enemy," Tiitus went on to say. “This is counter-mobility against the enemy.” The Estonia Lieutenant Colonel’s comments hit at the heart of the issue and why the Baltic states are developing a new defense line. 

Lukas Milevski is a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and wrote in a February 2nd article for the Philadelphia-based think tank 'the Foreign Policy Research Institute, that the Baltic States chose to build the new defense line based on their strategic thinking about the issue of future war with Russia. 

Photo Credit: Latvian Ministry of Defense

Milevski argued that Baltic policymakers “believe that they cannot give up ground, which means recognizing that they need to be prepared to contest a Russian invasion from the first moments following the violation of Baltic borders."

Construction of the Baltic Defense Line is already underway all along the various sections of the line. In May 2024, defense ministers from all three Baltic countries met to reaffirm their commitment to the project.

“Baltic countries stand as one when it comes to strengthening of regional security. We are ready to face any threats shoulder-to-shoulder. We agreed to deepen our cooperation in the field of special operations," Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds said in a statement.

"Together with NATO we are building [a] regional air defense system and getting ready for increased allied presence in the region,” Sprūds added. In August, Euro News reported Latvia began construction on the first phase of its portion of the defensive line near its eastern region of Latgale.

According to Wikipedia, Lithuania began construction on its portion of The Baltic Defense Line at the end of the summer in 2024 and Estonia is set to start connection on its section in 2025.

On September 27th, defense ministers from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland met with European Union leaders in Latvia to discuss joint funding for The Baltic Defense Line and noted in a joint statement that “external threats along the Baltic-Polish frontier [were] increasing,” according to the Central European Times.