Ranked: Teams that need homefield advantage most in the NFL playoffs

The NFL’s top seed in each conference gets to enjoy a bye week in the playoffs, as well as two potential home games on the road to the Super Bowl. There are six teams who have a realistic chance to snag the first seed in each conference, and we’ll rank them according to who needs to secure it the most. All statistics are sourced by Football Reference.

It’s pretty apparent that the Chiefs can play at Arrowhead Stadium, anywhere else in the United States, or on the moon, and it probably wouldn’t affect their chances of making a Super Bowl. They’ve proven time and time again that they can win anywhere, and their players make plays when it matters most, regardless of the location.

What’s going to be most important to Kansas City down the stretch of the season is the health of Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns. We’ve seen Mahomes power through leg injuries in the playoffs before, so it’s difficult to count him out.

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Former NFL quarterback Doug Williams told Andscape in January 2024 about Mahomes, “Now, there are some guys out there who you don’t feel the same way about. There are some guys who don’t give their guys that type of confidence when they step on the field (on the road). But not Pat. Home or road, it’s the same.”

Taking a slightly more cynical position, the Bills have also proven that homefield doesn’t seem to matter to them in the postseason. Buffalo has shown in recent years that they can lose anywhere in the playoffs, so their main focus will need to be on executing against quality opponents in close games.

In March 2024, Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd said, “This Buffalo Bills team doesn’t feel like they’re going to get to a Super Bowl, this Chiefs defense is all kids and only getting better, and they’ve got Mahomes in his prime.” That may be true, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had the best season of his career in 2024.

While most of the AFC playoff teams figure to hail from cold weather cities, it would be nice for Buffalo to host multiple games in Orchard Park in January. GiveMeSport slotted Buffalo in with the second best homefield advantage in the NFL in a June 2024 exercise. It hasn’t helped them in the past, but Bills Mafia is looking for any reason to go crazy during the playoffs.

The Packers are a somewhat of a mysterious team heading into the NFL playoffs. Everyone knows how well-rounded they are from a talent perspective, and how great of a job head coach Matt LaFleur has done with his group. With that said, Green Bay is not a popular pick to come out of the NFC. According to ESPN, Green Bay has the seventh-longest odds to make the Super Bowl.

Teams like the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles have received most of the spotlight with good reason, but the Packers can go toe to toe with either of them. Green Bay has already proven that when they played Philadelphia in Brazil in September, and in an early December showdown against Detroit.

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The Packers didn’t seem uncomfortable on the road in the playoffs a year ago, as they throttled Dallas in the Wild Card round. Green Bay played the eventual NFL champion San Francisco 49ers very well in the Divisional Round as well. The confines of Lambeau Field might help their chances slightly, but this group has also shown they can handle difficult environments away from home.

The Lions’ ranking in this exercise might not have been as high in early December or a couple of months into the year, but Detroit feels like they could certainly use the benefit of homefield advantage now. They’ve lost a laundry list of players to injury, and any little edge could make a difference for a team with Super Bowl dreams.

BVM Sports covered how Lions fans throw opponents visiting Ford Field off of their game in mid-December 2024. They wrote about “3^rd Down Town,” which involves fans waving signs with the number three in order to discombobulate the opposing offense. Detroit hosted playoff games last year for the first time since 1992.

The Lions were about as talented a roster as there was in the NFL this season, and they would have been able to thrive regardless of where the game has played. That depth has taken a huge hit, but Detroit has come too far to throw in the towel now. They’ll need to finish strong down the stretch to get the NFC’s top seed to keep realistic hope alive.

We have a pretty effective proof of concept when it comes to the Eagles playing at home in the postseason. Two years ago, Philadelphia possessed the top seed in the NFC, and won two home games against the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers to qualify for the Super Bowl. Last year, they were a wild card team, and lost in round one to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In terms of record, the Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and it’s hard to dispute that they would be a tough out in the postseason. However, they’ve shown signs that little, perhaps inconsequential things, seem to bother them. Wide receiver A.J. Brown remarked after Philadelphia’s ninth straight win that the team need to improve its passing.

Of course, Brown told Sports Illustrated that his criticism helped Philadelphia improve their aerial attack. But the Eagles feel like a team that would greatly benefit from the fervent passion of their fans in every playoff game, to help fuel any potential rumblings in the locker room that might trip them up.

While there are many franchises who would covet homefield advantage during the playoffs, no team needs it more than the Vikings. Minnesota has been one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season, and head coach Kevin O’Connell deserves a boatload of credit. With that said, their season will likely be over in short order if they can’t play all their NFC playoff games at home.

Minnesota’s defense is a big reason why they’re in the hunt for a number one seed, and defenses tend to travel well in the postseason. With that said, we’ve never seen Sam Darnold play in a playoff game, and the Vikings would be fortunate to not throw him to the wolves on the road if they don’t have to.

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Pro Football Focus noted that Darnold did not throw an interception from Weeks 11-15, but also pointed out that he had four “turnover-worthy plays” during that time frame. Using that as context, Michael Rand of The Minnesota Star Tribune wrote that “it’s a good reminder that Darnold is still a risk-reward quarterback and that it can tilt the other way when he’s slinging the ball all over the field.”