The NBA Draft Lottery: Who has the best odds of landing the number one pick?

For teams that didn’t make the NBA playoffs, the Draft Lottery is an important time to help shape the course of the future. The prized prospect in the 2023 NBA Draft is France’s Victor Wembanyama, who some analysts are saying is a once-in-a-generation type of talent. We’ll take a look at each team’s odds to win the Wembanyama sweepstakes.

The Detroit Pistons have a 14% chance of winning the draft lottery, and would be an extremely appealing landing spot for Wembanyama. Detroit has invested high draft picks to solidify their backcourt of the future in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, and bringing in a potentially special frontcourt player could set them up for the next decade.

The Houston Rockets also have a 14% chance of capturing the number one pick, and are in the midst of a franchise rebuild. They just hired former Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka in the same position, and are hoping to find a formula that gets them back into the postseason. Winning the lottery, or coming darn close, should help accelerate the timeline.

The San Antonio Spurs have a 14% chance of winning the lottery, which would be a full circle event for head coach Gregg Popovich. He saw just how much of an impact the 1997 first overall pick had on the team, as they selected Tim Duncan. Popovich is also no stranger to French players making a big difference, having coached Tony Parker.

The Charlotte Hornets have a 12.5% chance to win the NBA Draft Lottery. This season was disappointing on many levels for the franchise, as emerging guard LaMelo Ball suffered multiple ankle injuries that kept him off the floor for long periods of time. Bringing Wembanyama in would help the organization stabilize their frontcourt after the untimely off-court news involving Miles Bridges.

The Portland Trail Blazers have a 10.5% chance to come away with the first pick. They’ve had some rough luck with regards to selecting big guys high in the draft, as Sam Bowie and Greg Oden did not pan out. However, winning the lottery might ensure that current star Damian Lillard doesn’t entertain bolting for greener pastures.

The Orlando Magic have a 9% chance of nabbing the first pick, which would be the second consecutive season if it happened. Orlando is thrilled with the production of last year’s top pick Paolo Banchero, although the franchise would have to strongly think about how their current team would fit with another frontcourt player like Wembanyama.

The Indiana Pacers have a 6.8% chance of winning the Draft Lottery, and are in need of a generational type talent that they seemingly can never land. Indiana has had excellent players in their history, but not one that had the potential to be a top five player in the entire league. They’re hoping that changes this spring.

The Washington Wizards have a 6.7% chance of winning the Draft Lottery, and doing so might spell the end of Kristaps Porzingis’ tenure with the team. He had a great individual season, but would seem to be too redundant with the versatile Wembanyama. If the Wizards somehow decided to keep Porzingis, watching him with the French neophyte would be fascinating.

The Utah Jazz have a 4.5% chance to get the number one pick, and many thought they would move heaven and Earth before the season began to bolster those odds. However, the team performed better than expected under first-year head coach Will Hardy, which left them in the bottom half of the lottery.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 3% chance of winning the Draft Lottery, and this pick has been at the source of controversy. The Mavericks have been accused of losing games on purpose down the stretch to keep this pick in the top 10. They have a very small chance of getting the first pick, but if it turns into the 11^th pick or higher, it will transfer over to the New York Knicks.

The Chicago Bulls have a 1.8% chance of getting the first pick. Stranger things have happened, but Chicago will likely focus more on how they will revamp their team on the trade market, or through free agency. It seems like Chicago’s core of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic may have run its course.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, after completing a season where many did not expect them to be as competitive as they were. General manager Sam Presti would love nothing more than to get Wembanyama, but they will likely turn their attention to bringing last year’s second overall pick, Chet Holmgren, back at full health.

The Toronto Raptors have a 1% chance of winning the lottery, but as they say, if you’re in it, you never know. The Raptors are going to have some interesting decisions to make this offseason, involving the futures of Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. All three are talented players, but may not fit well together moving forward.

The New Orleans Pelicans have a 0.5% chance of winning the lottery, which may be lower than the chances that pigs fly. Be that as it may, pairing Wembanyama with fellow generational prospect Zion Williamson may be alluring, as unlikely as it is. The Pelicans will hope to get Williamson back healthy next year.