Pivotal states in the U.S. elections

Pivotal states in the election for U.S. President
Which are the key states for winning the U.S. presidency?
Swing states for Biden-Trump 2020
Pennsylvania : 20 electoral votes
The Rust Belt
Georgia: 16 electoral votes
North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Michigan: 16 electoral votes, leaning towards the Democratic Party
Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes, leaning towards the Democratic Party
Florida: 29 electoral votes
Florida: leaning towards a Republican victory
Texas: 38 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory
Ohio: 18 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory
Iowa: 6 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory
Too close to call
Pivotal states in the election for U.S. President

Commentators don't like to use the word 'gamble' when they are speaking about the state of Nevada, because it's so on the nose. But the territory of Las Vegas and its casinos has become a real 'Swing State' in the 2020 election. What are the others?

Which are the key states for winning the U.S. presidency?

In the U.S. electoral system, it's all or nothing: whoever wins a majority in a state generally gets the full number of "electoral votes" from that state. And so it happened that Hillary Clinton had more popular votes (the ones that go into the ballot box) than Donald Trump, but she still didn't win the election. Having lost with small margins in a few key states, Clinton's electoral votes could not surpass those of her opponent.

Swing states for Biden-Trump 2020

The key states where the difference between Republicans and Democrats is very narrow are called "swing states." They could go either way, they carry much weight in the electoral college, and they may decide the outcome of the election. The following states are pivotal in the election for U.S President.

Pennsylvania : 20 electoral votes

The Pennsylvania battle between the Republican and Democratic candidate is quite evenly matched. This state consists of large rural areas, a cultural hub where the U.S. Constitution was signed (Philadelphia), and the so-called "rust belt" where big metal and other industries suffer from international competition.

The Rust Belt

Workers from closed-down factories in the rust belt are those who moved into Trump's ranks in 2016, analysts say, because they were frustrated about not finding solutions to their problems in the Democratic Party. 'Make America Great Again' was a dream worth joining for these impoverished voters. However, in 2020 polls indicate that Joe Biden is regaining ground in his home state of Pennsylvania.

Georgia: 16 electoral votes

The state of Georgia is usually not in the list of 'swing states.' It's a southern and traditionally Republican state. However, a recent analysis in The New York Times (based on different surveys and studies) suggests that Joe Biden can win in this territory. Cities like Atlanta or Savannah might make a difference.

 

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes

This state gave Joe Biden a victory in the Democratic primary. Now it remains to be seen whether the Democrat can beat Trump in the region, where political options have been closely contested for years.

Arizona: 11 electoral votes

The classic western landscapes of America are often shot in Arizona. Polls show that Trump is making a comeback in this state. One reason is that the Latino electorate seems to have forgotten about his attacks on (illegal) immigrants from Mexico and beyond. More than 30 percent of Arizona's population is of Latin American origin.

Michigan: 16 electoral votes, leaning towards the Democratic Party

The Great Lakes State is also the territory where Detroit is located, a symbol of the industrial decline that is trying to reinvent and revive itself. In Michigan the polls indicated a clear victory for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. However, the Trump team has not given up yet.

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes, leaning towards the Democratic Party

Wisconsin is another corner of America with immense landscapes and an industrial hub like Milwaukee. Both Biden and Trump can come out on top in this state.

Florida: 29 electoral votes

Florida is a state with a lot of weight in the electoral college: 29 votes. It was the difference between President Al Gore or President George W. Bush in 2000. The outcome of that year's election was "too close to call" and Florida ballots had to be recounted for over a month.

Florida: leaning towards a Republican victory

Florida is the state of Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago, a region with many retirees, and the hub of Latin American immigrants: Miami. With a fundamental influence of Cuban exiles, the Latino population usually leans towards the Republican Party.

Texas: 38 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory

Texas is not usually included in the list of 'swing states' because it is a conservative and usually solid Republican state. However, there are political analysts who claim that this territory has changed, with many newcomers in cities like Austin and Houston because of their new places in the tech industry. Even if Texas does not become a Joe Biden state this time, it may turn blue in 2024.

Ohio: 18 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory

Whoever wins in Ohio wins the U.S. presidential election. Or at least, that's what they always say. It's been a rule since the 1960s. Four years ago, Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by a huge difference (51.3% to 43.2%), but the polls were slightly more favorable towards Biden this year.

Iowa: 6 electoral votes, leaning towards a Republican victory

A state of agricultural and rural tradition and, therefore, a region with the problems that a globalized market and international competition bring. Who will the farmers vote for? Has Trump improved their lives or has he disappointed them? This is a state with a very small presence of ethnic minorities: over 90% of the population is white and of European origin.

Too close to call

Will the coming days show an advantage for Trump or for Biden? According to some analysts, Trump has positioned himself so far to the right (bordering on extremism), that the moderate electorate could end up opting for a more centrist figure like Biden. On the other hand, Biden has proven to be less convincing among Latino voters than the Democrats had hoped.

 

Read more about the elections: These stars have endorsed Joe Biden

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