Is Russia getting closer to capturing a key settlement that it wants?

Moscow began eyeing a new target in Ukraine after seizing the city of Avdiivka back in February 2024. However, the fight for the settlement Russia was hoping to capture before a major holiday isn’t going well for the Kremlin according to some reports.

Russia had its eyes on the town of Chasiv Yar and Moscow was hoping that it could capture the settlement before May 9th according to comments Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi made on April 14th. 

Moscow wanted to take the eastern settlement of Chasiv Yar before Russian Victory Day on May 9th. That timeline was possible according to Syrskyi, who explained in a Telegram post the situation in the east was “significantly worsened.”

Reuters reported on Syrskyi’s comments and provided some background details about where Chasiv Yar is located on the frontline. The settlement lies just to the west of the city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured back in May 2023. 

Syrskyi warned that the situation in the east was deteriorating and that Russia planned to take Chasiv Yar before moving on to Kramatorsk. However, Ukrainian brigades have so far held off the Russian advance and have been reinforced. 

"The enemy's plans are being hampered by the heroic defense of our brigades, who have literally dug themselves into the ground, holding off the enemy's daily attacks," Syrskyi explained according to a translation from The Kyiv Independent. 

Russian military leadership allegedly tasked their soldiers with capturing Chasiv Yar by May 9th, which Syrskyi noted was the threat that remained relevant. Whether or not Russia can achieve its goal has yet to be seen, but things weren't good around mid-April. 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov recently revealed that Russian forces were concentrating ahead of a breakthrough attempt in the east. Umierov called the unfolding situation tense in an April 15th Facebook post. 

“I have been visiting combat units on the Eastern front. The situation is tense. The enemy is attempting to advance towards the Defence Forces’ positions, concentrating [forces] for a breakthrough west of Bakhmut,” Umierov said according to Ukrainska Pravda. 

“Despite the Russians’ numerical advantage, we are efficiently disrupting these plans thanks to the courage, training and professionalism of the defenders, who are making good use of advanced technological systems, ” Umierov added. 

It is unclear as of yet if Russia's alleged breakthrough attempt will occur at Chasiv Yar but capturing the city as part of a larger offensive to break Ukrainian lines in the east would make sense. Chasiv Yar is strategically important. 

"This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground,” explained Rob Lee—a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute—in an April 12th Twitter post on Chisiv Yar’s importance. 

“If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk Oblast as part of an expected summer offensive,” Lee continued, adding that Russian forces were making advances towards the settlement. 

“Russian forces will still have to cross the canal to take the city, but they have now reached the canal southeast of the city. Immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical,” Lee added. 

The Institute for the Study of War also noted that Chasiv Yar was an important city for Moscow because its capture would allow Russian forces to begin directly attacking a string of southern fortress cities in Ukraine's defensive belt. 

“Russian forces could launch subsequent offensive operations directly on Druzhkivka or Kostyantynivka after some period of rest and replenishment following the possible seizure of Chasiv Yar,” the institute reported in an April 13th war update. 

Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka being threatened would be “very operationally significant” according to ISW analysts since both fortress cities “help form the backbone of the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast and of eastern Ukraine in general.”

The capture of Chasiv Yar would open up a lot of avenues for attack and exacerbate the problem Ukraine is facing in the east at a time when it is running low on ammunition and other supplies. It could also prove to be a major political win for Moscow as well if taken before Victory Day. 

However, more than a week on from Syrskyi's comments Russia has made little progress towards its goal to capture Chasiv Yar and is only making "slow progress in the area" according to an intelligence update on the war from the UK Ministry of Defense published April 21st.

Russian reports from the country's Ministry of Defense published on its Telegram channel on April 21st suggested that their advance isn't stalled. The ministry claimed it seized control of the nearby town of Bohdanivka, which is just five e kilometers or roughly 3 miles from Chasiv Yar according to Reuters.

"Units of the Southern grouping group of forces have fully liberated the settlement of Bohdanivka ... and have improved the situation along the front line," the defense ministry post read.

Bohdanivka is important because it provides protection to the nearby cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. It is also a fortified hilltop position that could prove useful to the Russians in their goal to take Chasiv Yar if the news of the town's capture proves to be true.